Zions Bancorp disclosed $50 million charge-off tied to two commercial and industrial loans with fraudulent misrepresentations
10/16/2025 12:00 pm EST
AJ Economy Trend - US Down Due to Regional Banking Crisis that is looming to become Banking Crisis in Regional Banks
Zions Bancorp recently sent shockwaves through the regional banking sector by disclosing a $50 million charge-off tied to two commercial and industrial loans with apparent fraudulent misrepresentations, driving shares down ~13%. The write-off, associated with its California Bank & Trust unit, has raised serious concerns about the bank’s underwriting standards and credit oversight, particularly in a high-rate environment where loan defaults and hidden stress are under scrutiny. While some analysts consider this an isolated incident, the timing amid broader sectoral stress and fallout from recent defaults in private credit markets has fueled investor unease that there could be more “credit cockroaches” awaiting discovery.
Australia’s unemployment rate rose to 4.5% in September 2025
10/15/2025 12:00 pm EST
AJ Economy Trend - Australia Down Due rising unemployment rate in September 2025
Australia’s unemployment rate rose to 4.5% in September 2025, the highest since November 2021 and above market expectations of 4.3%, signaling a cooling labor market. The number of unemployed increased by 33,900 to 684,000, as both part-time (+23,500) and full-time job seekers (+10,400) rose. Despite this, total employment grew modestly by 14,900 to 14.64 million, missing forecasts of a 17,000 gain, following an upwardly revised decline of 11,800 in August. Full-time employment advanced by 8,700, while part-time employment rose by 6,300. The participation rate climbed to 67.0%, exceeding expectations, indicating more people entered the labor force. However, the underemployment rate increased to 5.9% from 5.7%, suggesting that job quality and hours remain under pressure even as headline employment continues to edge higher.
Japan’s industrial production fell 1.5% month over month in August 2025 and 1.6% year over year
10/15/2025 12:00 pm EST
AJ Economy Trend - Japan Down Due to the consecutive monthly decline and contraction of industrial production
Japan’s industrial production fell 1.5% month-over-month in August 2025, marking its second consecutive monthly decline and the sharpest contraction since November 2024. The drop was steeper than the preliminary 1.2% estimate and July’s 1.2% fall, underscoring persistent weakness in the manufacturing sector. The decline was driven by significant drops in electrical machinery (-4.9%), fabricated metals (-16.5%), and chemical production (-5.4%), amid subdued export demand, especially to the U.S., and ongoing trade policy uncertainty. On a year-over-year basis, output fell 1.6%, accelerating from a 0.4% decrease in July, signaling that Japan’s industrial sector remains under pressure from soft global demand and high input costs.
On a year over year basis, industrial production declined 1.6% year-on-year in August 2025, deepening from a 0.4% fall in July and marking the second straight annual contraction. The steeper decline highlights the ongoing struggles of Japan’s manufacturing sector amid weak global demand and trade uncertainty. Historically, industrial production in Japan has averaged 4.43% from 1954 to 2025, with a record high of +30% in February 1960 during its postwar boom and a record low of -37.2% in February 2009 during the global financial crisis. The current downturn, while far less severe, reflects a broader slowdown across key industries such as autos, steel, and electronics, which continue to face export headwinds and production disruptions.
New York Empire State Manufacturing Index reached 10.7 in October 2025, marking third positive reading in four months
10/15/2025 12:00 pm EST
AJ Economy Trend - US neutral with New York Empire State Manufacturing Index
The New York Empire State Manufacturing Index jumped 19.4 points to 10.7 in October 2025, well above expectations of -1.0, signaling a return to modest expansion in New York’s manufacturing sector. It was the third positive reading in four months, reflecting improving business conditions after recent softness. New orders rose sharply to 3.7 from -19.6, and shipments rebounded to 14.4 from -17.3, indicating stronger demand and output. Employment improved to 6.2 from -1.2, suggesting renewed hiring momentum, though the average workweek continued to shorten slightly. Input costs and selling prices both increased at a faster pace, hinting at some ongoing cost pressures. While delivery times lengthened modestly and supply availability worsened slightly, overall optimism improved markedly, with nearly half of surveyed firms expecting better business conditions in the months ahead, pointing to a cautiously positive outlook for New York’s manufacturing activity.
China’s consumer price index (CPI) -0.3% year over year in September 2025, deeper than expectation -0.1%
10/15/2025 12:00 pm EST
AJ Economy Trend - China Down Due to the ninth consecutive month of deflationary pressure, indicating strong sign of recession
China’s consumer price index (CPI) fell 0.3% year-on-year in September 2025, a steeper decline than market expectations of -0.1% but slightly milder than August’s -0.4%, marking the ninth consecutive month of deflationary pressure. The drop was driven mainly by food prices, which fell 4.4%, the sharpest since January 2024, amid broad declines across categories and a deeper fall in pork prices due to abundant supply, lower production costs, and weak demand ahead of the Golden Week holidays. In contrast, non-food prices rose 0.7%, supported by government-backed consumer trade-in programs that stimulated demand for items such as clothing, healthcare, and education. Transport costs declined at a slower rate (-2.0% vs -2.4%), while core inflation—excluding food and energy—rose 1.0%, the highest in 19 months, signaling modest underlying demand improvement. On a monthly basis, CPI edged up 0.1%, missing forecasts of 0.2%, suggesting that while deflationary pressures persist, policy support is beginning to stabilize non-food consumption.
NFIB Small Business Optimism Index declined to 98.8 in September 2025, marking first decrease in a quarter
10/15/2025 12:00 pm EST
AJ Economy Trend - US Down Due to anticipating headwinds in the small business environment due to inflationary pressures and sales expectations
The NFIB Small Business Optimism Index declined to 98.8 in September 2025, falling 2 points from August's 100.8 and below the forecasted 100.5, marking the first decrease after three consecutive months of growth. Small business owners face mounting challenges with 64% reporting supply chain disruptions and 14% citing inflation as their single most important problem. Despite these concerns, one positive indicator emerged as actual earnings changes reached their highest level since December 2021. NFIB Chief Economist Bill Dunkelberg noted that while most owners currently view their businesses as healthy, they're navigating multiple headwinds including inflationary pressures, slower sales expectations, and labor market challenges, all while remaining resilient amid uncertainty about how policy changes will impact their operations—a sentiment shift that could have broader economic implications if these challenges persist.
United Kingdom’s employed people increased by 91,000 in three months to August 2025, smallest employment growth in four months
10/14/2025 12:00 pm EST
AJ Economy Trend - UK Down Due to lowered employment people since 4 months ago
The number of employed people in the United Kingdom increased by 91,000 in the three months to August 2025, following a strong 232,000 gain in the prior period, marking the smallest employment growth in four months. Job creation was supported by part-time positions and employment among those aged 65 and over, but this was partly offset by declines among workers aged 16 to 64. On an annual basis, employment rose by 473,000, with gains across both full-time and part-time categories, including employees and self-employed individuals. However, the employment rate for people aged 16 to 64 slipped by 0.2 percentage points to 75.1%, signaling a mild cooling in labor demand. The number of people holding second jobs edged lower during the quarter but remained higher year-on-year at 1.323 million, representing 3.86% of total employment. Overall, the data suggest that while the UK labor market remains resilient, job growth momentum has slowed, particularly among core working-age groups.
United Kingdom’s unemployment rate rose to 4.8% in August 2025 from 4.7%
10/14/2025 12:00 pm EST
AJ Economy Trend - UK Down Due to higher unemployment rate in August 2025, highest since 2021
The United Kingdom’s unemployment rate rose to 4.8% in the three months to August 2025, exceeding expectations of 4.7% and marking the highest level since mid-2021. The increase was driven by more people unemployed for less than 6 months and over 12 months, while those unemployed for 6–12 months remained largely unchanged. Compared with a year earlier, unemployment increased across all duration groups, signaling a broad-based softening in the labor market. Despite this, total employment rose by 91,000 to 34.2 million, led mainly by part-time jobs and older workers aged 65 and above. The number of people with second jobs declined slightly during the quarter but was up annually to 1.323 million (3.86% of total employment). Meanwhile, the economic inactivity rate was stable at 21.0%, just 0.1 percentage point higher than the previous period, suggesting only marginal changes in overall labor force participation.
Tricolor Holdings, a Texas-based subprime auto lender and dealership network, filed for bankruptcy
10/10/2025 12:00 pm EST
AJ Economy Trend - US Down Due to subprime loans and delinquency rates continue to rise in the United States Economy
Tricolor Holdings, a Texas-based subprime auto lender and dealership network, filed for Chapter 7 bankruptcy in September 2025, marking one of the largest collapses in the U.S. auto financing sector in years. The company, which operated over 60 dealerships and managed roughly 70,000 active loans, is under federal investigation for extensive fraud, including allegations that it double-pledged thousands of vehicle loans across multiple credit lines. The court-appointed trustee described the case as a “fraud of extraordinary proportion.” Major banks such as Fifth Third, JPMorgan Chase, and Barclays face hundreds of millions of dollars in potential losses tied to Tricolor’s warehouse financing. The bankruptcy has disrupted payments for thousands of borrowers and raised broader concerns over risk management and transparency in subprime auto lending and securitization markets, prompting calls for tighter oversight and stronger due-diligence controls across the industry.
Canada’s unemployment rate maintained in elevated level of 7.1%, highest since August 2021
10/10/2025 12:00 pm EST
AJ Economy Trend - Canada Down Due to high and elevated unemployment rate at 7.1% indicating slowing labor market and economic recession coming
Canada’s unemployment rate held steady at 7.1% in September 2025, slightly below expectations of 7.2% but still the highest since August 2021, signaling continued labor market softness despite a rebound in hiring. The number of unemployed people rose modestly by 11,900 (+0.7%) to 1.61 million, while total employment increased by 60,400 (+0.3%) to 21.02 million, far exceeding forecasts for a small gain and recovering part of the 106,000-job decline seen over the prior two months. Job growth was driven entirely by full-time positions, which surged 106,100 (+0.6%), while part-time employment fell 45,600 (-1.2%). The employment rate rose slightly to 60.6%, and the labor force participation rate also edged up to 65.2%, both posting their first increases in three months. Overall, the data suggest a labor market showing tentative signs of stabilization, with robust full-time hiring offsetting prior losses, even as the unemployment rate remains elevated.
Federal Open Market Committee meeting on September 16-17 minutes agreed to forecast another 50 basis point cut in 2025
10/07/2025 12:00 pm EST
AJ Economy Trend - US Down Due to expectation of future pessimistic economic outlook in the US market within near future
The Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting on September 16–17, 2025, resulted in a 25-basis-point rate cut, bringing the federal funds target range to 4.00%–4.25%, as officials cited rising downside risks to employment and moderating economic growth. Policymakers noted that job gains had slowed, the unemployment rate edged up to 4.3%, and payroll revisions revealed weaker labor conditions than previously reported. Inflation remained somewhat elevated, with headline PCE at 2.7% and core PCE at 2.9%, partly reflecting tariff effects, though some participants saw productivity gains offsetting price pressures. GDP growth had weakened in the first half of the year, while housing remained soft and business investment moderate. Most members viewed the policy adjustment as necessary to balance risks between elevated inflation and a softening labor market, with several anticipating further easing later in 2025 if conditions warranted. One member, Governor Stephen Miran, dissented in favor of a larger 50-basis-point cut, citing more pronounced labor market weakness. The Committee reaffirmed its commitment to maximum employment and 2% inflation, signaling a shift toward a more neutral stance while continuing balance-sheet runoff and closely monitoring financial and economic developments.
RealClearMarkets Economic Optimism Index for the US dropped to 48.3 in October 2025
10/07/2025 12:00 pm EST
AJ Economy Trend - US Down Due to expectation of decrease in economic optimism index, indicating continuous consumer pessimissm
The RealClearMarkets/TIPP Economic Optimism Index for the US dropped to 48.3 in October 2025, its lowest level since May and below expectations of 49.3, highlighting continued consumer pessimism. This was the second consecutive month below the neutral 50 mark, indicating a lack of confidence in the economy’s trajectory. The decline was driven by a 5.9% drop in the Six-Month Economic Outlook to 42.8, reflecting weaker expectations for near-term economic conditions, and a further slide in Confidence in Federal Economic Policies to 46.4 from 47.3, reversing a short-lived period above 50 that had briefly ended a nearly four-year streak of pessimism. In contrast, the Personal Financial Outlook improved, rising 4.1% to 55.6, suggesting that while Americans have become more wary of the broader economy and government policies, they remain somewhat more optimistic about their own household finances.
Mexico’s consumer confidence slipped to 46.5 in September 2025, down 0.2 points from August
10/06/2025 12:00 pm EST
AJ Economy Trend - Mexico neutral with consumer confidence slipped slightly but maintaining neutral and slightly cautious outlook
Mexico’s consumer confidence index slipped to 46.5 in September 2025, down 0.2 points from August, reflecting a slightly more cautious outlook among households. Sentiment weakened toward both the current (-0.2 to 41.3) and future (-0.5 to 48.1) economic situation of the country, as well as in households’ ability to make major purchases (-0.8 to 32.4). Meanwhile, the indicator for the expected household economic situation held steady at 58.6, and perceptions of the current household situation improved slightly (+0.2 to 52.0). Compared with a year earlier, overall consumer confidence was down 0.5 points, highlighting a modest but persistent decline in sentiment.
Gold price is in all time high as USD currency continues to be weakened with expectations of Rate Cuts and Quantitative Easing
10/06/2025 12:00 pm EST
AJ Economy Trend - US Down Due to expectation of recession, money printing and distrust of USD as an universal currency, causing instability of the US and World Financial System
Gold and the U.S. dollar (USD) generally have an inverse relationship: when the dollar strengthens, gold prices often decline because it becomes more expensive for non-U.S. buyers, while a weaker dollar typically boosts gold. This dynamic is driven largely by interest-rate policy and real yields—rising U.S. rates and higher real yields support the dollar and reduce gold’s appeal as a non-yielding asset, whereas rate cuts or falling real yields tend to lift gold. Inflation also plays a key role, as gold is viewed as a hedge when inflation expectations rise faster than interest rates. Geopolitical tensions, banking stresses, and other risk-off events can temporarily see both gold and the dollar gain as safe-haven assets. Over time, however, shifts in U.S. monetary policy and real yields remain the primary forces shaping their inverse trend.
ADP US Private Employers Cut 32,000 jobs, showing a slowing labor market momentum
10/03/2025 12:00 pm EST
AJ Economy Trend - US Down Due to cut of private jobs and slowing in hiring by private companies in US
In September 2025, U.S. private employers cut 32,000 jobs, highlighting slowing labor market momentum despite strong Q2 economic growth. The decline was amplified by ADP’s annual rebenchmarking, which reduced September figures by 43,000 jobs. Losses were concentrated among small and mid-sized businesses, while large firms with over 500 employees added 33,000 jobs. By sector, education and health services (+33,000) and information (+3,000) posted gains, but these were outweighed by declines in leisure and hospitality (–19,000), professional and business services (–13,000), trade, transportation, and utilities (–7,000), financial activities (–9,000), and construction (–5,000). The report underscores a cautious hiring environment, with only pockets of resilience in healthcare and large enterprises.
ISM Manufacturing Employment Index improved but remained at contraction territory
10/03/2025 12:00 pm EST
AJ Economy Trend - US Down Due to ISM Manufacturing Employment Index remained in contraction territory
The ISM Manufacturing Employment Index in the US rose to 45.3 in September 2025, up from 43.8 in August, but remained below the neutral 50-point threshold, indicating continued contraction in manufacturing employment. The reading underscores ongoing softness in the labor market for the sector despite a modest improvement from the previous month.
Historically, the index has averaged 50.09 points since 1950, reflecting a balanced trend between expansion and contraction. It peaked at 73.7 in February 1951 during the post-war boom and hit a record low of 27.8 in May 1982 amid a severe recession. The current reading highlights that while the pace of job losses slowed in September, the manufacturing labor market remains under pressure.
Japan’s unemployment rate climbed to 2.6% in August 2025, up from 2.3% in July 2025
10/03/2025 12:00 pm EST
AJ Economy Trend - Japan Down Due to increase in unemployment in August 2025 and showing increase of unemployment and decrease in hiring
Japan’s unemployment rate climbed to 2.6% in August 2025, up from 2.3% in July and above expectations of 2.4%, marking the highest level since July 2024. The rise reflected a combination of higher unemployment and reduced employment: the number of unemployed rose by 150,000 to 1.79 million (a 13-month high), while employment declined by 210,000 to 68.10 million (a four-month low).
The labor force shrank slightly by 40,000 to 69.89 million, but the number of people outside the labor force fell by 20,000 to 39.70 million. On a non-seasonally adjusted basis, the labor force participation rate increased to 64.0%, up from 63.6% a year earlier, indicating more people are entering the workforce despite the softening job market.
Meanwhile, the jobs-to-applicants ratio eased to 1.20, its lowest level since January 2022, signaling reduced labor demand amid signs of cooling economic momentum.
US home price cooled to 1.8% year on year in July 2025
10/02/2025 12:00 pm EST
AJ Economy Trend - US neutral with home price continuous to cool due to high interest rate environment and weakening labor market
US home price growth cooled further to 1.8% year-on-year in July 2025, the slowest pace since July 2023, down from 2.2% in June but slightly above forecasts of 1.6%. The data signal that housing market momentum has slowed sharply, according to S&P’s Nicholas Godec.
Regional dynamics:
Northeast & Midwest outperform: New York (+6.4%), Chicago (+6.2%), Cleveland (+4.5%), and Boston & Detroit (~+4%) continued to see relatively strong gains as these markets had lagged during the pandemic boom.
Sun Belt & West Coast weaken: Tampa (-2.8% yoy) posted the sharpest drop among the 20 cities, while Phoenix (-0.9% yoy) also slipped into negative territory.
The divergence highlights a shift in housing strength from pandemic-era hot spots in the South and West to more affordable Northeastern and Midwestern metros, as higher mortgage rates and stretched affordability weigh on demand in formerly overheated regions.
US job openings rose slightly by 19,000 to 7.23 million in August 2025 compared to July 2025
10/02/2025 12:00 pm EST
AJ Economy Trend - US neutral with job openings remained largely unchanged that broadly matches expectations
US job openings rose slightly by 19,000 to 7.23 million in August 2025 (from 7.21 million in July, revised up), broadly matching expectations. The increase was led by leisure & hospitality (+97K), health care & social assistance (+81K), and retail trade (+55K), while openings declined in construction (-115K) and the federal government (-61K). Regionally, vacancies expanded in the South (+86K) and Midwest (+44K) but fell in the Northeast (-66K) and West (-46K).
Labor turnover remained largely steady: hires and separations both at 5.1 million, with quits holding at 3.1 million and layoffs/discharges at 1.7 million, indicating a still-resilient but slightly cooling labor market.
Dallas Fed’s general business activity index fell sharply to -8.7 in September from -1.7 in August
10/01/2025 12:00 pm EST
AJ Economy Trend - US Down Due to continuous contraction and reading of slowing down production with negative orders
The Dallas Fed’s general business activity index fell sharply to –8.7 in September from –1.7 in August, signaling a second straight month of contraction and the weakest reading since June. Production slowed notably, with the production index dropping to 5.2 (–10 pts), while capacity utilization eased to 3.9 and shipments slipped to 6.7. New orders turned negative at –2.6, reflecting softening demand after August’s uptick. Labor market indicators weakened, as the employment index plunged to –3.4, its lowest since April, indicating slight job losses, though work hours ticked up modestly. Price and wage pressures remained steady, with raw-materials costs still high at 43.4. Business sentiment stayed fragile, as the company-outlook index hovered near zero and the outlook-uncertainty index edged slightly below average at 13.9, reflecting continued caution among manufacturers.
Japan’s Retail Sales Fell by 1.1% year on Year in August 2025
10/01/2025 12:00 pm EST
AJ Economy Trend - Japan Down Due to sudden drop of Retail Sales in August 2025
Japan’s retail sales fell by 1.1% year-on-year in August 2025, reversing a 0.4% rise in July and missing forecasts for a 1% gain, marking the first annual drop since February 2022 and the steepest since August 2021. Persistent weak wage growth and elevated cost pressures, coupled with unseasonal weather, weighed on consumer demand. Sales slumped in automobiles (-7.9%), non-store retailers (-7.3%), fuel (-7.2%), department stores (-4.0%), and food and beverages (-0.2%), while gains were seen in other retail categories (+6.0%), machinery and equipment (+5.4%), pharmaceuticals and cosmetics (+2.5%), and textiles and personal goods (+0.8%). On a monthly basis, retail sales also declined by 1.1% in August, following a 1.6% drop in July, highlighting ongoing pressure on consumer spending.
Euro Area Economic Sentiment Indicator (ESI) edged up to 95.5 in September 2025
10/01/2025 10:00 pm EST
AJ Economy Trend - Eurozone neutral due to improving sentiment in consumer and construction but weakened in industry, services and retail trade
The Euro Area Economic Sentiment Indicator (ESI) edged up to 95.5 in September 2025 from a revised 95.3 in August, slightly above market expectations of 95.2, signaling a modest improvement in sentiment. Gains were supported by stronger consumer confidence (-14.9 vs -15.5) and a slight rise in construction confidence (-3.5 vs -3.6). However, sentiment weakened in industry (-10.3 vs -10.2), services (3.6 vs 3.8), and retail trade (-7.7 vs -6.4), showing continued pressures across business sectors. Among major economies, sentiment improved in Spain (+3.0 to 104.7), Italy (+0.7 to 99), and France (+0.3 to 93), while it slipped in Germany (-0.4 to 89.3) and the Netherlands (-0.7 to 99.9), highlighting a mixed regional outlook with resilience in southern Europe offsetting softness in core economies.
Japan’s leading economic indicator rises to 106.1, highest since March 2025
10/01/2025 10:00 pm EST
AJ Economy Trend - US neutral due to firm labor market despite soft payroll statistics in recent quarter
Japan’s leading economic index rose to 106.1 in July 2025, the highest since March, reflecting a brighter short-term outlook. The improvement was driven by a stronger labor market, as the unemployment rate fell to 2.3%, its lowest since December 2019, and by continued growth in household spending, which increased 1.4% in July, marking a third straight monthly rise. However, the positive momentum was partly offset by softening consumer confidence, which eased from June’s four-month high.
