Private businesses in the US added 155,000 jobs, exceeding expectations of 105,000
04/02/2025 06:00 pm EST
AJ Economy Trend - US Neutral with solid labor market despite increasing recession probability
In March 2025, private businesses in the U.S. added 155,000 jobs, a solid gain that exceeded expectations of 105,000 and followed an upwardly revised 84,000 increase in February. The services sector led the way with 132,000 new jobs, driven by professional and business services (+57K), financial activities (+38K), and leisure/hospitality (+17K), while education and health services added 12,000 and the information sector gained 3,000. However, trade, transportation, and utilities shed 6,000 jobs. In the goods-producing sector, employment rose by 24,000, with manufacturing contributing 21,000 jobs and construction 6,000, though natural resources and mining saw a loss of 3,000. Wage growth slowed, with year-over-year pay gains dipping to 4.6% for job-stayers and 6.5% for job-changers, narrowing the job-changer premium to just 1.9 percentage points—matching a series low last recorded in September.
Sweeping tariff policy imposed a 10% baseline tariff on all US imports and significantly higher rates on key trading partners
04/02/2025 06:00 pm EST
AJ Economy Trend - US Down with tariff policy imposed on products in multiple nations
President Donald Trump has announced a sweeping tariff policy, reimposing a 10% baseline tariff on all U.S. imports and significantly higher rates on key trading partners—34% on China, 20% on the European Union, 24% on Japan, and 25% on South Korean autos. Framed as “reciprocal tariffs” aimed at correcting trade imbalances, the move has sparked global concern, with economists warning it could raise inflation, disrupt supply chains, and trigger a global economic slowdown. Analysts estimate the tariffs could cost the average American household over $2,600 annually due to higher prices on imported goods. Markets reacted with volatility, and companies—particularly in retail, autos, and manufacturing—are bracing for higher input costs, potential layoffs, and reduced investment. Agricultural producers fear retaliation from China and Europe, while global allies have expressed deep concern over what they see as a return to U.S. trade protectionism. The policy marks a dramatic shift in international economic relations and a revival of the tariff-heavy strategy seen during Trump’s first term.
Canada Manufacturing PMI slumps to 46.3 in March 2025
04/01/2025 12:00 pm EST
AJ Economy Trend - Canada Down due to slump in PMI in March 2025
PMI dropped to 46.3 from 47.8 in February — the sharpest decline in factory activity since late 2023, signaling a steepening contraction in the sector.
Output and new orders both declined, reflecting a broad-based demand slowdown.
Export orders fell at the fastest pace since May 2020, as tariff-related uncertainty weighed on cross-border trade with the U.S.
Employment continued to decline as firms were hesitant to backfill departures due to the drop in new work.
Input cost inflation surged to its highest level since summer 2022, largely due to rising tariffs.
Business confidence deteriorated sharply — expectations for future production fell, indicating rising pessimism.
Dallas Fed Services Index weakens sharply in March 2025
04/01/2025 12:00 pm EST
AJ Economy Trend - US down with Dallas Fed Services Index weakens with -11.3, lowest since November 2023
Texas Services Sector Weakens Sharply in March 2025
General Business Activity Index:
Fell 15.9 points to -11.3, the lowest since November 2023, indicating worsening business conditions in the Texas service sector.Revenue Index:
Dropped 7 points to 1.3, pointing to stagnant revenue growth and limited momentum in services activity.Labor Market:
Employment: Slight increase in hiring.
Workweek: Unchanged from February.
Business Sentiment:
Company Outlook Index: Plunged to the lowest level since mid-2022, signaling growing pessimism.
Outlook Uncertainty Index: Spiked to 27.3, the highest since October 2022, reflecting heightened concern over the economic outlook.
Price Pressures:
Selling Prices: Eased slightly.
Input Prices and Wages: Held steady, showing continued cost pressures.
Manufacturing PMI fell to 49%, marking the 27th month of contraction in the past 29 months
04/01/2025 12:00 pm EST
AJ Economy Trend - US down with contraction in manufacturing PMI fell to 49%
Manufacturing PMI® fell to 49.0% in March from 50.3% in February, signaling a return to contraction after two months of marginal growth.
This marks the 27th month of contraction in the past 29 months for U.S. manufacturing.
The overall economy continued expanding for the 59th straight month, as PMI remains above the recession threshold of 42.3%.
Key economic impacts and observations:
Demand weakened: New orders and exports declined; backlogs contracted faster.
Production and employment fell as companies adjusted output and headcount in response to lower demand.
Input activity strengthened, with inventories and imports growing, largely in anticipation of tariffs.
Prices surged, driven by tariffs on steel, aluminum, and critical materials.
Only 3 of the 6 largest industries (Petroleum & Coal Products, Computer & Electronic Products, Transportation Equipment) expanded.
Tariff-related uncertainty and geopolitical tensions are distorting supply chains and purchase behaviors.
Executives reported weaker sales, inventory stockpiling, and customer anxiety over tariffs.
Some noted stable demand, but most expressed concern over pricing pressures, global economic instability, and potential demand destruction.
Canada and Europe were cited as trouble spots for U.S. exports due to trade tensions.
US Job openings held steady at 7.6 million, down 877,000 from a year earlier, mostly from finance and insurance
04/01/2025 12:00 pm EST
AJ Economy Trend - US down with lowering job openings and separations and revision up on January openings and layoffs along with lower hires
The U.S. labor market showed stability in February 2025. Job openings held steady at 7.6 million, though they were down 877,000 from a year earlier, with notable declines in finance and insurance. Hiring remained unchanged at 5.4 million, with no major shifts across industries.
Total separations were also steady at 5.3 million, including 3.2 million quits and 1.8 million layoffs and discharges, both little changed from the previous month. However, quits were down 273,000 year-over-year, suggesting slightly reduced worker confidence in switching jobs. Increases in separations were seen in state and local government education and the federal government.
Layoffs rose in retail trade, real estate, and the federal sector, but declined in transportation and warehousing. Other separations fell by 67,000 to 275,000.
By establishment size, small businesses (1–9 employees) saw a decline in quits and other separations but a rise in layoffs. Larger firms (5,000+ employees) showed no significant changes across metrics.
Revisions for January showed slightly higher job openings, lower hires, and higher layoffs, reflecting updated data submissions.
US PMI dropped to 50.2 in March 2025 indicating slower growth in US manufacturing sector
04/01/2025 12:00 pm EST
AJ Economy Trend - US down with slowing manufacturing sector due to PMI drop
PMI dropped to 50.2 in March 2025 from 52.7 in February, indicating slower growth in the manufacturing sector.
Despite remaining above 50, the decline suggests momentum is weakening and the sector is close to stagnation.
The reading is below the long-term average of 53.11 (2012–2025), reflecting below-trend performance.
The sector remains far below its post-pandemic peak of 63.4 in July 2021, but well above the record low of 36.1 in April 2020.
The slowdown may be driven by:
Policy uncertainty (e.g., new tariffs)
Rising input costs
Weakening demand, particularly in export markets
Despite rise of inflation, investors demand treasury bonds for safety with consumer confidence indicating weak economy
03/29/2025 12:00 pm EST
AJ Economy Trend - US down with weakening consumer confidence leading 10 year yield drop
Over the past five days, the U.S. 10-Year Treasury yield has declined notably, falling to 4.253%—its lowest point in that period—after peaking above 4.375% midweek. This downward trend, especially the sharp drop on the final day, suggests a shift in investor sentiment toward safer assets, likely driven by concerns over economic growth, geopolitical risks, or expectations that the Federal Reserve may cut interest rates sooner than previously anticipated.
The drop in yield indicates rising demand for Treasuries, as investors seek stability amid uncertainty, and may reflect softening inflation expectations or weaker economic data.
US consumer sentiment fell sharply, dropping 12% from February’s 64.7 to 57 and expectations from 64 to 52.6
03/28/2025 03:00 pm EST
AJ Economy Trend - US down with severe drop in consumer sentiment and expectations
U.S. consumer sentiment fell sharply in March 2025, dropping 12% from February and marking the third consecutive monthly decline, according to the University of Michigan's Surveys of Consumers. The expectations index plunged 18%, now down over 30% since November 2024. The deterioration was broad-based, with Republicans, Democrats, and independents alike reporting worsening views on personal finances, business conditions, inflation, and unemployment. A striking two-thirds of consumers expect unemployment to rise in the next year—the highest level since 2009—highlighting growing anxiety despite recent labor market strength. Inflation expectations also surged, with year-ahead expectations rising from 4.3% to 5.0%, the highest since November 2022, and long-run expectations jumping from 3.5% to 4.1%, driven largely by independents and Republicans. The data reflects deepening consumer concern amid ongoing economic policy uncertainty.
US PCE price index rose 0.3% for the month and 2.5% year over year, above market expectations
03/28/2025 03:00 pm EST
AJ Economy Trend - US down with rising PCE index causing higher inflation to the economy
In February 2025, U.S. personal income rose by 0.8% ($194.7 billion), while disposable personal income (DPI) increased by 0.9% ($191.6 billion), driven mainly by gains in government transfer payments and private sector wages. Personal consumption expenditures (PCE) climbed 0.4% ($87.8 billion), with spending on goods rising $56.3 billion and services up $31.5 billion. The PCE price index rose 0.3% for the month and 2.5% year-over-year, while core PCE (excluding food and energy) increased 0.4% monthly and 2.8% annually. Real disposable income advanced 0.5%, but real consumer spending was up just 0.1%. The personal saving rate rose to 4.6%, with savings totaling $1.02 trillion. Revisions to previous months included a downward adjustment to January’s wage growth and farm income due to updated data and revised federal relief payout timing.
Consumer Confidence in Eurozone declined 14.5 with economic sentiment indicator declined to 95.2
03/28/2025 03:00 pm EST
AJ Economy Trend - Eurozone down due to decline in both consumer confidence and economic sentiment
In March 2025, consumer confidence in the Eurozone declined to -14.5, down from -13.6 in February and below expectations of an improvement, signaling growing pessimism among households. In the broader EU, sentiment also dropped by 1.0 point to -13.9. The decline reflects rising concerns about the economic outlook, driven by factors such as geopolitical tensions and potential U.S. trade tariffs, which the ECB warns could dampen growth and fuel inflation. The weakening sentiment raises concerns about reduced consumer spending and its impact on overall economic activity in the months ahead.
The Eurozone's Economic Sentiment Indicator (ESI) declined to 95.2, down from 96.3 in February, marking its lowest level in three months and falling short of the anticipated 97.0. This downturn was primarily driven by diminished confidence in the services sector (2.4 from 5.1), retail trade (-6.8 from -5.1), and among consumers (-14.5 from -13.6). Conversely, confidence in industry (-10.6 from -11.0) and construction (-3.4 from -3.3) remained relatively stable.
Among major EU economies, the ESI experienced notable declines in France (-2.1 to 96.4) and Italy (-2.0 to 97.6), while Spain saw an improvement (+1.1 to 103.4). Germany's confidence edged up slightly (+0.3 to 89.4), and the Netherlands remained unchanged at 100.3.
This decline in economic sentiment suggests increasing concerns about the Eurozone's economic outlook, particularly within the services and retail sectors. The European Commission's report highlights that both the EU and the Eurozone are experiencing sentiment levels below their long-term averages, indicating potential challenges ahead for economic recovery.
France’s annual inflation rate held steady at 0.8% in March 2025 and stable at 0.2% MoM, with energy experiencing deflation and lower inflation in manufactured goods
03/28/2025 02:00 pm EST
AJ Economy Trend - France down with slower economy caused by deflation in manufactured goods and energy
France's annual inflation rate held steady at 0.8% in March 2025, matching February's figure and marking the lowest level since February 2021, according to preliminary data. A slight uptick in service inflation (+2.3%) and food prices (+0.6%), particularly fresh products, was offset by deeper declines in energy prices (-6.2%) and marginal deflation in manufactured goods (-0.2%). Tobacco inflation also eased slightly to 4.1%. On a monthly basis, consumer prices rose 0.2% after being flat in February, falling short of the anticipated 0.4% increase, mainly due to higher prices for clothing and footwear. The EU-harmonized inflation rate also remained stable year-over-year at 0.9%, with a 0.2% monthly rise.
In March 2025, consumer prices in France rose by 0.2% month-on-month, rebounding from a flat reading in February but falling short of the expected 0.4% increase, according to preliminary estimates. The modest rise was mainly driven by higher prices for manufactured goods, especially clothing and footwear, signaling a seasonal uptick in apparel-related spending.
United Kingdom’s economy grew by 0.1% in Q4 2024, slight improvement observed from zero growth in Q3
03/28/2025 01:00 pm EST
AJ Economy Trend - UK Neutral with slightly improving economy with GDP growth by 0.1% in Q4 2024
The UK economy grew by 0.1% in Q4 2024, confirming the initial estimate and marking a slight improvement from zero growth in Q3. On the production side, services rose by a modest 0.1%—less than previously estimated—with healthcare and social work driving the gains. Construction expanded 0.3%, while overall production fell 0.4%, a softer decline than the initial -0.8%, due to drops in manufacturing, particularly in basic metals (-2.9%) and transport equipment (-2%). On the expenditure side, declines in net trade and fixed investment were offset by a sharp rise in gross capital formation. Household spending rose 0.1%, upgraded from an earlier flat estimate, supported by higher spending on restaurants, hotels, and housing. Government consumption increased 0.5%, led by public administration, defence, and healthcare activity.
Germany’s unemployment rate rose to 6.3% and total unemployed population rose to 2.922 million
03/28/2025 01:00 pm EST
AJ Economy Trend - Germany down due to rising unemployment with broad economic slowdown
In March 2025, the number of unemployed people in Germany rose by 26,000 to 2.922 million, surpassing market expectations of a smaller 10,000 increase and marking the highest unemployment level since June 2020. The number of unemployed increased by 26,000 to 2.922 million, more than double the anticipated rise of 10,000. This uptick highlights ongoing labor market challenges amid a sluggish economic recovery. Historically, unemployment change in Germany has averaged just 320 people monthly since 1992, with a record high of 355,000 in April 2020 during the pandemic and a record low of -96,000 in May 2006. The sharper-than-expected rise in March signals persistent pressure on the job market despite recent policy efforts.
Germany’s seasonally adjusted unemployment rate rose to 6.3% in March 2025, up from 6.2% in February and slightly above market expectations, reaching its highest level since September 2020.This year’s rebound is being dampened by the broader economic slowdown, signaling continued headwinds for employment growth.
Germany Consumer Climate Indicator remained weak at -24.5 in April 2025
03/28/2025 01:00 pm EST
AJ Economy Trend - Germany down due to continuous weak consumer climate
Germany’s GfK Consumer Climate Indicator remained weak at -24.5 heading into April 2025, only slightly above the prior month’s revised -24.6 and below market expectations of -23.0. While the first post-election survey revealed modest improvements in economic outlook (6.9 vs. 1.2), income expectations (-3.1 vs. -5.4), and buying sentiment (-8.2 vs. -11.1), the continued rise in the propensity to save (13.8, the highest since April 2024) reflects lingering caution among consumers.
Initial Jobless Claims fell from revised up number in previous week, continued claims totaled 2.15 million, up 115,000 from a year ago
03/27/2025 01:00 pm EST
AJ Economy Trend - US down due to continued claims up from a year ago and revision up from prior week’s figure
In the week ending March 22, 2025, U.S. seasonally adjusted initial jobless claims fell slightly to 224,000, while the prior week's figure was revised up to 225,000. The 4-week moving average declined to 224,000, indicating modest labor market stability. Insured unemployment for the week ending March 15 dropped by 25,000 to 1.856 million, with the insured unemployment rate holding steady at 1.2%. Unadjusted initial claims totaled 198,917, down 4.1% from the previous week and slightly above the same period last year. Continued claims across all programs totaled 2.15 million, up about 115,000 from a year ago. The Department of Labor also released revised seasonal adjustment factors affecting data from 2020 onward. No states were triggered onto extended benefits, and the highest insured unemployment rates were in Rhode Island (2.9%), New Jersey (2.8%), and California (2.4%).
US Consumer Confidence Index fell to 92.9, below expectation of 100
03/25/2025 01:00 pm EST
AJ Economy Trend - US down due to plunging consumer confidence index and rising consumer pessimism on the economy
Consumer Confidence Index fell to 92.9 in March 2025 (down 7.2 points from February).
Present Situation Index dropped to 134.5 (down 3.6 points), reflecting weaker views on current business and labor conditions.
Expectations Index plunged to 65.2 (down 9.6 points)
The Expectations reading is well below 80, a threshold that typically signals a recession ahead.
Overall, the report shows rising consumer pessimism about income, jobs, and short-term economic prospects.
France’s consumer confidence index increase slightly to 93 in February 2025 from 92
03/25/2025 01:00 pm EST
AJ Economy Trend - France up with improving confidence index although still far from long term average
France's consumer confidence index saw a slight increase to 93 in February 2025, up from 92 the previous month, aligning with market expectations and marking the highest level in four months. This improvement brings the index closer to its long-term average of 100. Consumers showed a more positive outlook regarding their personal financial situations, with pessimism decreasing. The anticipation of price increases over the next 12 months slightly declined, reflecting a bit less concern about inflation among consumers.
Additionally, households felt more optimistic about their future saving potential, with an increase in both the numbers who think they will be able to save and those who believe it's a good time to save. Despite these positive shifts in financial and saving outlooks, the overall sentiment about future standards of living remained stagnant, and concerns about unemployment saw an increase. Furthermore, there was a slight decline in the inclination to make major purchases, indicating ongoing caution in spending on big-ticket items.
United Kingdom’s annual inflation rate raised to 3%, keeping pressure on UK economy
03/25/2025 01:00 pm EST
AJ Economy Trend - UK down due to inflation rate exceeding market expectation of 2.8%
The UK's annual inflation rate jumped to 3% in January 2025, the highest level since March 2024, and exceeded market expectations of 2.8%. This sharp increase was primarily driven by significant price rises in transport, especially air fares and motor fuels, although there was a mitigating effect from falling prices of secondhand cars. Additionally, food and non-alcoholic beverage prices rose notably, led by increases in the costs of meat and bread products.
The recreation and culture sector also saw higher inflation rates, partly due to the inclusion of a 20% value-added tax on private school fees, pushing education inflation to 7.5%. Services inflation climbed to 5%, which was still below the Bank of England's prediction of 5.2%. However, inflation slowed in sectors such as restaurants and hotels, and housing and utilities.
Core inflation, which excludes volatile items like food and energy, rose to 3.7% from 3.2%, aligning with forecasts. On a monthly basis, consumer prices saw a slight decline of 0.1%, less than the anticipated 0.3% drop. This data highlights the mixed pressures affecting the UK economy, with significant sectoral variations in price changes.
Japan’s leading economic indicators rose slightly to 108 but with unemployment and consumer sentiment decreased
03/25/2025 01:00 pm EST
AJ Economy Trend - Japan Neutral with rising economic indicators but with lowering consumer sentiment and rising unemployment
Japan's leading economic indicators index rose slightly to 108.0 in January 2025, reaching its highest level since October. This slight increase from December's revised figure of 107.9, however, fell short of market expectations, which had forecasted a higher 108.4. Despite the increase in the index, the unemployment rate ticked up to 2.5%, indicating only a moderate improvement in employment, which nonetheless reached a new high. Household spending showed positive momentum, increasing for the first time in five months and marking the quickest growth since August 2022. Conversely, consumer sentiment dipped to its lowest since March 2023, reflecting some underlying economic uncertainties.
US Private Sector Growth accelerated with S&P Global Composite PMI rose to 53.5
03/24/2025 01:00 pm EST
AJ Economy Trend - US up with accelerating private sector growth in March 2025
US private sector growth accelerated in March 2025, with the S&P Global Composite PMI rising to 53.5 from 51.6 in February, marking the strongest expansion since December 2024, according to flash estimates. The upturn was led by services (54.3), rebounding after earlier weather-related disruptions, while manufacturing slipped into contraction (49.8) after a temporary boost from tariff-driven inventory buildups. Employment rose modestly, recovering from February’s decline. Input cost inflation surged to a near two-year high, especially in manufacturing, driven by tariffs, though strong competition limited price pass-through. Despite solid current activity, business confidence weakened, falling to the second-lowest level since October 2022, amid mounting concerns over demand and policy direction under the Trump administration.
Germany’s private sector activity rose from 50.4 to 50.9 in March 2025
03/24/2025 01:00 pm EST
AJ Economy Trend - Germany down due to continue decline in employment and services growth slowed sharply
Germany’s private sector activity grew at the fastest pace in ten months in March 2025, with the HCOB Flash Composite PMI rising to 50.9 from 50.4 in February, though slightly below expectations of 51.
The improvement was largely driven by manufacturing, which saw its first increase in output in nearly two years. In contrast, services growth slowed sharply, weighed down by weak new business inflows.
Employment continued to decline, reflecting subdued capacity needs, although the pace of job cuts eased. On the inflation front, input and output price increases slowed to their lowest since October 2024, indicating a further cooling of cost pressures.
Business sentiment improved modestly, suggesting cautious optimism despite ongoing structural headwinds.
France’s private sector remained in contraction in March 2025
03/24/2025 01:00 pm EST
AJ Economy Trend - France down due to private sector remained in contraction even though moderated
France’s private sector remained in contraction in March 2025, with the HCOB Composite PMI rising to 47 from 45.1 in February, slightly beating market expectations. While this marks the seventh straight month of decline, the pace of contraction moderated, helped by signs of stabilization in manufacturing (48.9, the softest drop since June 2022) and a slight improvement in services (46.6). New orders continued to fall, though at a slower rate, but employment declined for the fourth consecutive month, particularly in services—the longest streak of job losses since 2020. Input cost inflation eased, while selling prices rose modestly. Business confidence fell to its lowest in nearly five years, reflecting ongoing concerns about demand, employment, and the broader economic outlook.
Japan’s private sector activity contracted sharply in March 2025 with Composite PMI falling to 48.5 from 52 in February
03/23/2025 01:00 pm EST
AJ Economy Trend - Japan down due to composite PMI fell into contraction territory in February
Japan’s private sector activity contracted sharply in March 2025, with the au Jibun Bank Composite PMI falling to 48.5 from 52.0 in February, marking the first decline since October and the steepest since February 2022.
Services shrank for the first time in five months, while manufacturing extended its downturn for a ninth month, posting the fastest decline in a year. New orders fell, driven by a deepening contraction in manufacturing and a slowdown in services.
Despite this, foreign demand and employment improved, and backlogs of work eased more gradually. Input cost inflation accelerated, but selling price increases moderated.
Business sentiment dropped to its lowest since August 2020, weighed down by rising costs, labor shortages, sluggish consumer demand, and global trade uncertainty.
Australia’s private sector activity expanded at fastest pace in seven months in March 2025
03/23/2025 01:00 pm EST
AJ Economy Trend - Australia Neutral with improving growth accelerated in recent year but with softening business confidence in the year ahead
Australia’s private sector activity expanded at the fastest pace in seven months in March 2025, with the S&P Global Flash Composite PMI rising to 51.3 from 50.6 in February.
Growth was supported by stronger performances in both manufacturing (52.6)—its quickest pace in nearly two-and-a-half years—and services (51.2).
The upturn was driven by higher new business inflows, though export demand declined. Backlogs of work increased for the first time since mid-2022, and employment rose at the fastest rate in almost three years.
Despite intensifying cost pressures, firms chose to absorb some of the rising costs, while business confidence about the year ahead softened.
France’s manufacturing climate softened slightly in March 2025
03/21/2025 01:00 pm EST
AJ Economy Trend - France down due to manufacturing climate softened slightly in March 2025
France’s manufacturing climate softened slightly in March 2025, with the indicator slipping to 96 from 97, further below its long-term average of 100 and signaling continued sectoral weakness. The decline was primarily driven by deteriorating sentiment around overall and foreign order books, reflecting weaker demand both at home and abroad. Expectations for future selling prices also eased, pointing to potential pressure on pricing power. However, modest improvements in anticipated production and employment suggest some stabilization beneath the surface. Economic uncertainty declined notably, offering a small silver lining, though sector-specific weakness—particularly in food and beverages—underscores persistent challenges in parts of the industry.
Canadian Retail Sales dropped 0.4% in February 2025, showing back to back decrease since June 2024
03/21/2025 01:00 pm EST
AJ Economy Trend - Canada down due to decreasing retail sales and indication to recession
Retail sales are expected to fall 0.4% in February, following a revised 0.6% drop in January, marking the first back-to-back decline since June 2024. The decline was led by sharp drops in motor vehicles and parts (-2.6%), especially new car dealers (-3.2%), as well as food and beverage (-2.5%) and sporting goods and miscellaneous retailers (-2.2%). However, sales rose at gasoline stations (+3.2%) and general merchandise stores (+0.9%).
Despite the recent monthly weakness, total retail sales were still 4.2% higher year-over-year.
Initial Jobless Claims and Continuous Jobless Claims rose in the week of March 15th 2025
03/20/2025 01:00 pm EST
AJ Economy Trend - US down due to increasing initial jobless claims
U.S. Weekly Unemployment Insurance Claims Summary (Week Ending March 15, 2025)
Initial Claims (Seasonally Adjusted): Increased by 2,000 to 223,000 from the prior week's revised 221,000. The four-week moving average rose to 227,000 (+750).
Insured Unemployment (Seasonally Adjusted): Increased by 33,000 to 1,892,000. The four-week moving average increased to 1,875,750 (+6,250).
Unadjusted Initial Claims: Fell by 7,502 (-3.5%) to 206,503, but the decline was smaller than the expected 9,285 drop. Claims were 191,772 in the same week last year.
Unadjusted Insured Unemployment: Declined by 24,119 (-1.1%) to 2,127,131 but was still higher than the 2,008,778 from a year ago.
Highest Insured Unemployment Rates: Rhode Island (3.0%), New Jersey (2.9%), Minnesota (2.5%), California (2.4%), Massachusetts (2.4%), and Illinois (2.3%).
Largest Increases in Initial Claims: California (+4,280), Texas (+1,470), Virginia (+1,155), Michigan (+910), Arizona (+457).
Largest Decreases in Initial Claims: New York (-15,113), Wisconsin (-1,766), Missouri (-862), Kentucky (-825), Ohio (-666).
Despite a slight rise in initial claims, the insured unemployment rate remained at 1.2%, indicating a stable but slightly softening labor market.
Canada’s PPI increased 0.4% month-over-month in February 2025, exceeding market expectations of 0.3%
03/20/2025 01:00 pm EST
AJ Economy Trend - UK down due to risk of rising prices and weak economic conditions in Canada
Canada's industrial producer prices increased 0.4% month-over-month in February 2025, exceeding market expectations of 0.3% and marking the fifth consecutive monthly rise. The increase was driven by energy and petroleum products (+0.5%), particularly finished motor gasoline (+0.2%) and diesel fuel (+0.2%), along with higher prices for chemicals (+0.6%), non-ferrous metal products (+3.1%), and food-related products (+0.1%). Excluding energy, the IPPI still rose 0.4%, reflecting broad-based cost pressures.
On a yearly basis, producer prices surged 4.9%, signaling persistent inflationary trends in Canada's industrial sector.
Bank of England maintained Bank Rate at 4.5% in March 2025, forecasting CPI inflation rise to 3.75% by Q3 2023
03/20/2025 01:00 pm EST
AJ Economy Trend - UK down due to risk of rising prices and weak employment intentions
The Bank of England maintained the Bank Rate at 4.5% in March 2025, with one dissenting vote favoring a 0.25 percentage point cut. While inflation has declined significantly over the past two years, CPI inflation rose to 3.0% in January, slightly above forecasts, with a projected peak of 3.75% in Q3 2025. Wage and price pressures remain somewhat elevated but are moderating. UK GDP growth outperformed expectations, but business surveys indicate weak employment intentions. Rising global trade uncertainty, US tariffs, and geopolitical risks add to market volatility. The Bank of England signaled a gradual approach to policy easing, contingent on inflation persistence and economic conditions.
Germany’s Producer Prices rose year over year in February 2025 but missing market forecast
03/20/2025 01:00 pm EST
AJ Economy Trend - Germany Neutral due to easing producer price pressure
Germany's producer prices rose 0.7% year-on-year in February 2025, up from 0.5% in January but below the 1% market forecast, marking the fourth consecutive month of inflation. The increase was driven by higher prices for non-durable consumer goods (+3.0%), durable consumer goods (+1.2%), and capital goods (+2.0%), particularly machinery (+1.9%) and motor vehicles (+1.4%). Meanwhile, energy prices fell (-0.8%), mainly due to lower natural gas (-2.7%) and district heating (-1.6%), though electricity costs rose (+1.0%). On a monthly basis, PPI declined (-0.2%), marking the third consecutive drop, reflecting some easing price pressures despite ongoing inflation in consumer and capital goods.
United Kingdom’s unemployment rate stood at 4.4%, continuing uptrend and signaling challenges in labor market
03/20/2025 01:00 pm EST
AJ Economy Trend - UK down due to continuous uptrend of unemployment rate
As of the three-month period from November 2024 to January 2025, the United Kingdom's unemployment rate stood at 4.4%, reflecting an increase from 4.1% during the same period a year earlier.
This rate has remained steady compared to the previous quarter, indicating a stabilization in unemployment levels.
Notably, the unemployment rate has risen over the past six months, suggesting potential challenges in the labor market.
In comparison, the employment rate for individuals aged 16 to 64 was estimated at 75.0% during the same period, showing an increase from the previous year and the last quarter.
Additionally, the economic inactivity rate decreased to 21.5%, down from the previous year and the last quarter, indicating that fewer individuals are outside the labor force.
These figures suggest a relatively stable labor market, with slight improvements in employment and economic inactivity rates, despite the uptick in unemployment over the past year.
Federal Reserve to maintain federal funds rate unchanged at 4.25%-4.5%, but projecting 50 bps cut in 2025
03/18/2025 01:00 pm EST
AJ Economy Trend - US Neutral as Federal Reserve stay in course towards lowering inflation by maintaining current rate
Interest Rates: The Fed kept the federal funds rate unchanged at 4.25%-4.5%, maintaining its pause in the rate-cut cycle that began in January.
Future Rate Cuts: Policymakers still anticipate reducing interest rates by 50 basis points (bps) in 2025, unchanged from the December projection.
Economic Growth:
2025 GDP growth forecast revised down to 1.7% (from 2.1% in December).
2026 growth cut to 1.8% (from 2%), and 2027 to 1.8% (from 1.9%).
Inflation (PCE Index):
2025 inflation forecast raised to 2.7% (from 2.5%).
2026 inflation revised up to 2.2% (from 2.1%).
2027 inflation remains at 2.0%.
Unemployment:
2025 unemployment forecast slightly increased to 4.4% (from 4.3%).
2026 and 2027 projections remain at 4.3%.
Balance Sheet Reduction: Starting in April, the Fed will slow the pace of reducing its securities holdings by lowering the Treasury securities redemption cap from $25 billion to $5 billion per month.
The Fed remains cautious due to increased uncertainty in the economic outlook.
While interest rates remain steady, the higher inflation forecast suggests persistent price pressures.
The downward revision in GDP growth signals a slowing economy.
The slower reduction in Treasury holdings aims to maintain liquidity and avoid excessive tightening of financial conditions.
Bank of Japan Interest Rate Decision to hold short term rate at 0.5%, highest level since 2008
03/18/2025 01:00 pm EST
AJ Economy Trend - Japan Neutral as BoJ takes a wait and see approach to follow Federal Reserves’ decision
Bank of Japan (BoJ) Interest Rate Decision – March 2025
Interest Rate: Held at 0.5%, the highest level since 2008, following January's rate hike.
Market Expectation: Decision was widely expected.
Caution Ahead of the Fed: BoJ took a wait-and-see approach before the U.S. Federal Reserve’s upcoming decision.
Global & Domestic Risks: The BoJ remains cautious due to global economic uncertainties, trade policy concerns, and Japan’s fragile recovery.
Moderate Economic Growth: Japan's economy is recovering moderately, but some weaknesses persist.
Private Consumption: Continues to grow due to wage hikes, despite cost pressures.
Exports & Industrial Output: Mostly flat, reflecting weak external demand.
Inflation Trends: 3.0% – 3.5% YoY, mainly driven by higher service prices.
Inflation Outlook: Underlying CPI expected to rise gradually, with inflation expectations increasing moderately.
US Building Permits fell 1.2% to 1.456 million, biggest drop in 5 months but remained above forecast
03/18/2025 01:00 pm EST
AJ Economy Trend - US Neutral with fall of building permits but remained above forecast
U.S. Building Permits – February 2025
Overall Decline: Building permits fell 1.2% to an annualized rate of 1.456 million, the biggest drop in five months, but slightly above market expectations (1.450 million).
Single-Family Homes: Declined 0.2% to 992,000 permits.
Multi-Family Units (5+ units): Dropped 4.3% to 404,000 permits.
Regional Breakdown:
Northeast: -15.3% (116,000 permits)
West: -7.6% (290,000 permits)
South: +1.0% (806,000 permits)
Midwest: +8.9% (224,000 permits)
This suggests weaker activity in the Northeast and West, while the Midwest and South saw growth.
Canadian Consumer Price Index (CPI) rose 2.6% year over year, accelerated from January
03/18/2025 01:00 pm EST
AJ Economy Trend - Canada down due to tariff measures with United States
Canadian Consumer Price Index (CPI) report for February 2025:
Annual Inflation: The CPI rose 2.6% year over year, accelerating from 1.9% in January.
Monthly Inflation: The CPI increased 1.1% from January, with a seasonally adjusted rise of 0.7%.
The acceleration was driven by the end of the GST/HST tax break and higher travel costs, while gasoline price growth slowed, helping moderate the overall increase.
Shelter Costs: Increased 4.2% year-over-year, contributing to overall CPI growth.
GST/HST Reinstatement (Feb 15, 2025):
Led to higher consumer prices for eligible products.
Restaurant food prices fell -1.4% YoY, moderating from a -5.1% drop in January.
Alcoholic beverages declined -1.4% YoY, compared to -3.6% in January.
Provinces with HST experienced greater price impacts than others.
Travel Costs:
Travel tour prices surged 18.8% YoY (from 8.3% in January) and jumped 23.2% MoM, driven by U.S. holiday demand.
Gasoline Prices:
+5.1% YoY in February, down from +8.6% in January due to base-year effects.
+0.6% MoM, mainly from higher refining costs during planned refinery maintenance, despite lower crude oil prices.
All provinces experienced faster price growth, with the highest increases in New Brunswick and Ontario.
U.S. tariffs and potential Canadian countermeasures could impact inflation in the coming months.
No CPI adjustments are planned, as tariff effects will be reflected in final retail prices.
Retail sales in United States rose 0.2% MoM and 3.1% YoY but falling short of expectations of 0.6% and 3.5%
03/17/2025 01:00 pm EST
AJ Economy Trend - US Neutral with increase in retail sales but short of expectations
Retail sales in the United States rose 0.2% month-over-month in February 2025, recovering from a 1.2% decline in January but falling short of market expectations for a 0.6% increase. The overall recovery was uneven, with seven of the 13 major retail categories experiencing declines. Notably, food services and drinking places saw a sharp 1.5% drop, followed by gasoline stations (-1%), clothing (-0.6%), and motor vehicle & parts dealers (-0.4%). Other categories with weaker sales included sporting goods, hobby, musical instruments, and book stores (-0.4%), miscellaneous store retailers (-0.3%), and electronics & appliance stores (-0.3%). In contrast, nonstore retailers posted the largest gain (2.4%), indicating strong e-commerce activity. Health and personal care stores also saw a solid 1.7% increase, while food and beverage stores (0.4%), general merchandise (0.2%), and building materials (0.2%) posted modest gains. Sales at furniture stores remained unchanged.
A key takeaway from the report is that core retail sales—which exclude food services, auto dealers, building materials, and gasoline stations and are used to estimate GDP—rose 1.0%, marking a strong rebound from a downwardly revised 1.0% decline in January and surpassing forecasts of a 0.2% gain. While the broader retail sector remains under pressure, particularly in discretionary categories, the better-than-expected core retail performance suggests a resilient consumer base despite economic uncertainty.
Empire State Manufacturing Survey showed a sharp decrease in business condition with index plummeted 26 points to -20.0
03/17/2025 01:00 pm EST
AJ Economy Trend - US down due to deteriorating business conditions across New York State with new orders and shipment fell, price increased
The Empire State Manufacturing Survey for March 2025 revealed a sharp deterioration in business conditions across New York State, as the general business conditions index plummeted by 26 points to -20.0. New orders and shipments both fell significantly, reversing gains from the previous month. The new orders index dropped to -14.9, while the shipments index declined to -8.5, indicating a notable slowdown in manufacturing activity. Inventories, on the other hand, rose to 13.3, their highest level in over two years, suggesting businesses are stockpiling goods amid uncertain demand. Delivery times and supply availability remained relatively unchanged. Meanwhile, employment levels continued to contract, with the number of employees index at -4.1, and the average workweek index at -2.5, pointing to reduced hours worked.
Inflationary pressures continued to intensify, with input costs rising at their fastest pace in more than two years. The prices paid index climbed to 44.9, while the prices received index increased to 22.4, suggesting that firms are passing on some of the higher costs to consumers. These price increases are expected to persist, further squeezing profit margins. Despite these challenges, businesses remain cautious about the future, with the index for future business conditions dropping another 10 points to 12.7, extending last month’s decline. Capital spending plans remained soft, and supply availability is expected to tighten further in the coming months, reflecting ongoing supply chain constraints.
Overall, the survey underscores a significant contraction in New York’s manufacturing sector, driven by declining demand, rising costs, and weakening business optimism. Firms are grappling with a challenging environment marked by higher input prices, reduced employment, and sluggish orders, leading to a growing sense of pessimism about the months ahead.
Germany’s annual inflation rate remained at 2.3%, unchanged from January
03/15/2025 01:00 pm EST
AJ Economy Trend - Germany Neutral with annual inflation rate remained unchanged from January 2025
In February 2025, Germany’s annual inflation rate remained at 2.3%, unchanged from January. Consumer prices rose 0.4% month-over-month, confirming provisional estimates. The Harmonized Index of Consumer Prices (HICP) increased 2.6% year-over-year and 0.5% on the month, slightly below provisional estimates. Energy prices fell 1.6% annually, with electricity down 3.0% and heating oil dropping 6.9%, while natural gas (+2.0%) and district heating (+9.7%)** rose. Food inflation surged to 2.4% (from 0.8% in January), with edible oils (+11.9%) and butter (+27.9%) leading the rise. Service prices saw a sharp 3.8% annual increase, driven by transport (+11.4%), social services (+10.4%), and insurance (+9.4%). Core inflation (excluding food and energy) stood at 2.7%, reflecting persistently high price pressures outside energy. Despite energy deflation, rising service and food costs keep inflation above the ECB’s 2% target, suggesting continued cautious monetary policy.
France CPI remained stable at 0.2%, the decline was mainly driven by energy prices
03/15/2025 01:00 pm EST
AJ Economy Trend - France Neutral with CPI remained stable with gradual decrease in price
In February 2025, France's consumer prices (CPI) remained stable month-over-month after a 0.2% increase in January. A sharp drop in energy prices (-4.6%), led by a 12.6% decline in electricity costs, offset rising service prices (+0.6%), especially in transportation (+3.9%) and housing-related costs (+1.1%). On an annual basis, inflation slowed to 0.8%, the first time below 1% since February 2021, down from 1.7% in January. This decline was driven by a 5.8% drop in energy prices and slower price increases in services (+2.2%), manufactured goods (0.0%), and tobacco (+4.5%), despite a slight acceleration in food prices (+0.3%). Core inflation eased to 1.3% (from 1.4%), while the harmonized consumer price index (HICP) rose 0.1% on the month and 0.9% year-over-year.
United Kingdom’s GDP contracted by 0.1% in January 2025, missing expectation of 0.1% expansion
03/15/2025 01:00 pm EST
AJ Economy Trend - UK down due to contracting GDP in January 2025
The British economy contracted by 0.1% in January 2025, reversing December’s 0.4% growth and missing expectations of a 0.1% expansion. The decline was driven by a 0.9% drop in production, with manufacturing shrinking 1.1%, led by basic metals (-3.3%) and pharmaceuticals (-3.1%). Mining and quarrying fell 3.3%, largely due to a decline in crude petroleum and natural gas extraction. Construction also slipped 0.2%, marking its second consecutive decline. However, services grew 0.1%, supported by administrative and support services (1.9%) and wholesale and retail trade (0.7%). Over the three months to January, GDP increased by 0.2%, suggesting moderate resilience despite the monthly decline.
Treasury spread remained inverted with long term treasury yield rising due to fear of inflation risk
03/15/2025 10:00 am EST
AJ Economy Trend - US down due to continuous price increase uncertainty leading to rising long term treasury rates
The U.S. Treasury yield curve remains inverted, with short-term yields (1M: 4.298%, 3M: 4.296%) higher than the 10Y yield (4.210%), signaling ongoing economic uncertainty. However, mid-to-long-term yields (5Y-30Y) have risen significantly, suggesting the market is adjusting to expectations of higher rates for longer rather than imminent Fed rate cuts. Compared to a month ago, the curve has slightly steepened, indicating future price inflation in long term. The largest gains in yields are in the 2Y (+1.70%), 5Y (+1.64%), and 10Y (+1.15%) maturities, reflecting shifting investor sentiment toward higher inflation risks ahead.
Consumer sentiment dropped 11% in March, marking the third month of decline since December 2024
03/14/2025 10:00 am EST
AJ Economy Trend - US down due to continuously weakening consumer sentiment
Consumer Sentiment Summary in March 2025
Overall Decline: Consumer sentiment dropped another 11% in March, marking the third consecutive month of decline and a 22% drop since December 2024.
Broad-Based Weakness: Sentiment declines were consistent across all demographics, including age, education, income, wealth, political affiliations, and geographic regions.
Future Expectations Worsen: While current economic conditions remained largely unchanged, expectations for personal finances, labor markets, inflation, business conditions, and stock markets deteriorated.
Policy Uncertainty a Key Concern: Consumers cited frequent shifts in economic policies as making it difficult to plan for the future, regardless of political preferences.
Political Breakdown of Sentiment Declines:
Republicans: Expectations index fell 10% despite previous post-election confidence.
Independents: Declined 12%, reflecting growing uncertainty.
Democrats: Fell sharply by 24%, the steepest drop among all groups.
Inflation Expectations Surge:
Short-Term Inflation (1-Year): Jumped from 4.3% to 4.9%, the highest since November 2022, marking the third straight month of large increases (0.5 percentage points or more).
Long-Term Inflation (5-10 Years): Rose from 3.5% to 3.9%, the biggest month-over-month increase since 1993, driven by a significant rise among Independents.
Conclusion:
Consumer confidence is deteriorating rapidly, driven by uncertainty over economic policies, inflation, and market conditions.
Inflation expectations are rising sharply, suggesting concerns about persistent price pressures.
Bipartisan sentiment decline highlights widespread economic anxiety, which could impact spending, investment, and monetary policy in the coming months.
Initial jobless claims fell slightly but 4 week moving average increased to 226,000
03/13/2025 01:00 pm EST
AJ Economy Trend - US down as price decreases with recession risks
US initial jobless claims fell by 2,000 to 220,000 in the week ending March 8, though the previous week’s figure was revised up to 222,000. The four-week moving average increased by 1,500 to 226,000. Insured unemployment declined by 27,000 to 1,870,000, keeping the insured unemployment rate steady at 1.2%. Unadjusted initial claims dropped by 13,202 to 212,817, exceeding the expected decline. The unadjusted insured unemployment rate fell to 1.4%, with total insured unemployment decreasing by 67,600 to 2,163,394. Continued claims across all programs rose to 2,265,318. Rhode Island (3.4%), New Jersey (2.9%), and Massachusetts (2.6%) recorded the highest insured unemployment rates. New York saw the largest increase in initial claims (+15,513), while Massachusetts (-3,885) and Michigan (-1,933) saw the largest declines.
US Producer Prices stayed the same MoM and producer prices rose 3.2% YoY, below forecast and signaling weaker inflation
03/13/2025 01:00 pm EST
AJ Economy Trend - US down as price decreases with recession risks
In February 2025, US producer prices remained flat from the previous month, marking the lowest rate in seven months and falling below expectations of a 0.3% increase. Services prices declined by 0.2%, the largest drop since July 2024, driven by lower margins in machinery and vehicle wholesaling, retailing, and chemicals. Meanwhile, goods prices rose 0.3% for the fifth consecutive month, with a sharp 53.6% surge in chicken egg prices and increases in pork, vegetables, electric power, and tobacco. Year-over-year, producer prices rose 3.2%, down from January’s 3.7% and below forecasts of 3.3%. Core PPI declined 0.1% month-over-month and 3.4% year-over-year, signaling weaker-than-expected underlying inflation pressures.
Bank of Canada lowered the funding rate by 25 bps to 2.75%
03/12/2025 02:00 pm EST
AJ Economy Trend - Canada down due to decreasing overnight rate with recession fear and slowing down inflation
The Bank of Canada cut its target for the overnight rate by 25 basis points to 2.75%, with the Bank Rate at 3.00% and the deposit rate at 2.70%. The Canadian economy entered 2025 in a strong position, with inflation close to the 2% target and solid GDP growth. However, escalating trade tensions with the U.S. are expected to slow economic activity and drive inflation higher, increasing uncertainty.
While the U.S. economy appears to have slowed, economic growth in the eurozone remained modest, and China experienced strong gains due to government support. Equity markets declined, and bond yields fell as investors anticipated weaker North American growth. Oil prices remained volatile, trading below prior assumptions.
Canada’s economy grew by 2.6% in Q4 2024, exceeding expectations, driven by past rate cuts that supported consumption and housing. However, economic growth is projected to slow in early 2025 due to weakening consumer confidence and business investment, despite a temporary surge in exports ahead of tariffs. Employment growth was strong from November to January, with the jobless rate falling to 6.6%, but hiring stalled in February due to trade uncertainty. Wage growth showed signs of moderation.
Inflation remains close to 2%, but it is expected to rise to 2.5% in March as a temporary tax suspension ends. Core inflation remains elevated due to persistent shelter price inflation, and short-term inflation expectations have increased due to tariff concerns.
The Bank emphasized that monetary policy cannot counteract the effects of a trade war but must ensure that rising costs do not trigger sustained inflation. While economic growth has been stronger than expected, uncertainty from shifting U.S. tariff policies is dampening consumer and business confidence. The Bank will continue monitoring inflation pressures and expectations while maintaining its commitment to price stability.
Monthly inflation rate increased 0.2% compared to 0.5% in January, annual CPI increased 2.8% compared to 3.0% in January
03/12/2025 02:00 pm EST
AJ Economy Trend - US up with easing inflation rate in February 2025
Monthly Inflation Trends
Monthly CPI: Increased 0.2% (seasonally adjusted), down from 0.5% in January.
Annual CPI: 2.8% increase over the past 12 months (down from 3.0% in January).
Core CPI (Excluding Food & Energy): +0.2% in February, +3.1% annually.
Key Drivers of Inflation
Shelter Costs: +0.3%, contributing to nearly half of the overall CPI increase.
Airline Fares: -4.0%, a major deflationary factor.
Gasoline Prices: -1.0% in February, though energy overall rose 0.2% due to higher electricity & natural gas costs.
Food Prices: +0.2% overall.
Food at home: Unchanged (0.0%).
Food away from home: +0.4%, driven by full-service meals (+0.4%) and limited-service meals (+0.3%).
Notable Sector Trends
Used Cars & Trucks: +0.9% (continued rebound from previous months).
Medical Care: +0.3%, led by physicians’ services (+0.4%) and hospital services (+0.1%).
Household Furnishings & Recreation: +0.4% each.
Apparel: +0.6% after declining in January.
New Vehicles: -0.1%, continuing a weak trend.
12-Month Trends
Shelter Costs: +4.2% (smallest annual increase since December 2021).
Food Prices: +2.6%.
Eggs: +58.8% (driving a 7.7% rise in meats, poultry, fish, and eggs index).
Dairy: +0.8%.
Cereals & Bakery Products: +0.3%.
Energy Prices: -0.2%.
Gasoline: -3.1%.
Fuel Oil: -5.1%.
Electricity: +2.5%.
Natural Gas: +6.0%.
Transportation Services: +6.0% (led by motor vehicle insurance +11.1%).
Medical Care: +2.9%.
Job Openings Stayed steady at 7.7 million but declined 728,000 year over year with lowering openings and hiring but increasing layoffs
03/11/2025 02:00 pm EST
AJ Economy Trend - US down due to decreasing YoY Job Openings and increasing layoffs
Overall Labor Market Trends
Job Openings: Held steady at 7.7 million, but declined 728,000 over the year.
Hires: Unchanged at 5.4 million.
Total Separations: Little change at 5.3 million, including quits, layoffs, and discharges.
Industry Highlights
Job Openings Increased in real estate and rental/leasing (+46,000).
Hires Declined in mining and logging (-6,000).
Quits Increased in construction (+53,000) and mining/logging (+6,000).
Layoffs and Discharges Decreased in mining/logging (-8,000).
Establishment Size Trends
Quits rate increased for small firms (1-9 employees), while other indicators remained stable.
Large firms (5,000+ employees) saw little to no change in job openings, hires, and separations.
2024 Annual Labor Market Overview
Average Job Openings: 7.8 million, down 1.5 million from 2023.
Hires: 65.3 million, down 5.1 million from 2023.
Total Separations: 63.2 million, down 4.6 million from 2023.
Quits: 39.2 million, down 5 million (62% of separations).
Layoffs/Discharges: 20.2 million, up 402,000 (31.9% of separations).
Other Separations: 3.8 million, down 5,000 (6.1% of separations).
Revisions to December 2024 Data
Job Openings: Revised down by 92,000 to 7.5 million.
Hires: Revised down by 88,000 to 5.4 million.
Total Separations: Revised down by 187,000 to 5.1 million.
Quits: Revised down by 102,000 to 3.1 million.
Layoffs/Discharges: Revised down by 102,000 to 1.7 million.
Japan’s GDP Growth expanded primarily due to increase in capital expenditure and government spending
03/10/2025 02:00 pm EST
AJ Economy Trend - Japan up with increase in GDP
Japan’s GDP Growth – The economy expanded by 2.2% annualized in Q4 2024, lower than the 2.8% preliminary estimate but up from 1.4% in Q3.
Capital Expenditure Rebound – Business investment saw a strong recovery, supporting growth.
Government Spending – Increased for the fourth consecutive quarter, contributing positively.
Net Trade Contribution – Exports continued to grow despite US tariff threats, while imports declined after two quarters of growth.
Private Consumption – Grew for the third straight quarter but slowed significantly due to inflation and higher borrowing costs.
US Consumer Inflation Expectations rose to 3.1%, highest since May 2024 due to tariff and trade war concerns
03/10/2025 01:00 pm EST
AJ Economy Trend - US down due consumers’ expectation of inflation
In February 2025, US consumer inflation expectations for the year ahead rose to 3.1% from 3%, the highest since May 2024. Price expectations increased for gas (3.7%), food (5.1%), medical care (7.2%), college tuition (6.9%), and rent (6.7%), while home price growth expectations edged up to 3.3%. Three-year and five-year inflation expectations remained at 3%. Unemployment expectations surged to 39.4%, the highest since September 2023, while household income growth expectations rose slightly to 3.1%.
US unemployment rate up slightly to 4.1%, with total nonfarm payroll employment rose by 151,000
03/07/2025 11:00 am EST
AJ Economy Trend - US down due rising unemployment and downward revision of previous months
In February 2025, total nonfarm payroll employment rose by 151,000, while the unemployment rate remained at 4.1%, with 7.1 million unemployed individuals. Employment gains were seen in health care (+52,000), financial activities (+21,000), transportation and warehousing (+18,000), and social assistance (+11,000), while federal government jobs declined by 10,000. The employment-population ratio fell to 59.9% (-0.2 pp), and the labor force participation rate remained steady at 62.4%. The number of part-time workers for economic reasons increased by 460,000 to 4.9 million, while long-term unemployment (27+ weeks) stood at 1.5 million (20.9% of total unemployed). Average hourly earnings increased by 0.3% to $35.93, marking a 4.0% rise over the past year. The average workweek remained at 34.1 hours, with manufacturing overtime edging up to 2.9 hours. December employment was revised up by 16,000 to +323,000, while January was revised down by 18,000 to +125,000, resulting in a net downward revision of 2,000 jobs over the two months.
Canada’s unemployment rate at 6.6%, with low labor participating and net employment increase by 1,100 only
03/07/2025 11:00 am EST
AJ Economy Trend - Canada down due to low net increase in employment and weakening labor market
The Canadian labor market remained stable in February 2025, with the unemployment rate holding at 6.6%, defying expectations of a slight increase to 6.7%. The number of unemployed individuals dropped by 17,900 to 1.473 million, but this decline was offset by a similar drop in labor force participation, which fell to 63.5%, its lowest level in four months. As a result, net employment increased by just 1,100 to 20.995 million, significantly below the forecasted 20,000 job growth, indicating sluggish labor market expansion despite stable unemployment levels.
Initial Jobless Claims fell 21,000 to 221,000, with continuous and unadjusted initial claim rose
03/06/2025 11:00 am EST
AJ Economy Trend - US Neutral with initial jobless claims dropped but offset by rising continuous jobless rate
Initial jobless claims fell by 21,000 to 221,000, marking a decline from the previous week's 242,000, while the 4-week moving average rose slightly to 224,250. The insured unemployment rate remained at 1.2% for the week ending February 22, though seasonally adjusted insured unemployment increased by 42,000 to 1,897,000. Unadjusted initial claims rose by 3,833 to 224,689, a much smaller increase than the expected seasonal rise of 25,158. The unadjusted insured unemployment rate climbed to 1.5%, with total insured unemployment in state programs reaching 2,231,273, exceeding seasonal expectations. Federal civilian jobless claims increased by 1,020 to 1,634. Among states, the highest insured unemployment rates were in New Jersey (2.9%), Rhode Island (2.9%), and Minnesota (2.6%). Massachusetts, Rhode Island, and Illinois saw the largest increases in claims, while Kentucky, California, and Tennessee saw the largest declines. Despite the increase in continued claims, the job market remains historically tight.
European Central Bank cuts rate by 25 bps with envision of weak economic environment in region
03/06/2025 11:00 am EST
AJ Economy Trend - Europe Down due to rate cutting to cope with weak economic future
Interest Rate Cuts:
Deposit facility rate: Reduced to 2.50% (-25 bps)
Main refinancing rate: Reduced to 2.65% (-25 bps)
Marginal lending rate: Reduced to 2.90% (-25 bps)
Inflation Projections:
2025: 2.3%
2026: 1.9%
2027: 2.0%
Core inflation expected to stabilize near 2%
Economic Growth Forecasts:
2025: Revised down to 0.9%
2026: Revised down to 1.2%
Policy Stance:
Acknowledges monetary policy is becoming less restrictive
Easing borrowing costs for businesses and households
Domestic inflation remains elevated, but wage growth is moderating
Weak exports and investment weigh on growth
Data-dependent approach, with no commitment to a specific rate path
The European Central Bank (ECB) reduced key interest rates by 25 basis points in January 2025, lowering the deposit facility rate to 2.50%, the main refinancing rate to 2.65%, and the marginal lending rate to 2.90%. This move reflects a more accommodative monetary stance as inflation is expected to ease, with projections of 2.3% in 2025, 1.9% in 2026, and 2.0% in 2027, while core inflation nears the 2% target. Economic growth forecasts have been revised downward to 0.9% in 2025 and 1.2% in 2026, driven by weak exports and sluggish investment. Despite domestic inflation remaining elevated due to delayed wage and price adjustments, wage growth is moderating. The ECB remains data-dependent, adjusting policy as necessary to ensure inflation stabilizes around its 2% medium-term target without committing to a specific rate path.
Canada’s S&P Global Composite PMI dropped to 46.8 in February, deepening economic contraction
03/05/2025 12:00 pm EST
AJ Economy Trend - Canada Down due to deepening economic contraction
This decline in Canada's S&P Global Composite PMI to 46.8 in February 2025 suggests deepening economic contraction, particularly in the services sector, which is facing weak new business inflows. The fact that manufacturing output also declined for the first time since September is concerning, given that the sector previously showed resilience.
Private sector downturn accelerated, with services leading the decline.
Manufacturing also weakened, reversing prior gains.
Employment losses worsened, marking the steepest decline since June 2020.
Shrinking backlogs indicate that businesses have excess capacity, signaling weak demand.
Cost pressures remain high, but firms are reluctant to pass them fully to consumers.
Optimism for rate cuts persists, with businesses hoping for stimulus in the coming months.
The weak job market and persistent inflationary pressures could push the Bank of Canada to reconsider its monetary policy stance sooner than expected. However, with interest rates already near neutral levels, the central bank may adopt a cautious approach to avoid reigniting inflation.
ADP private sector added 77,000 jobs in February 2025, well below expected 140,000
03/05/2025 12:00 pm EST
AJ Economy Trend - US Down due to significant drop in private sector employment
The US private sector added 77,000 jobs in February 2025, marking the smallest gain in seven months and falling well below the expected 140,000. The service sector added 36,000 jobs, with growth in leisure/hospitality (+41,000), professional/business services (+27,000), and financial activities (+26,000), while losses were seen in trade/transportation/utilities (-33,000), education/health (-28,000), and information (-14,000). The goods-producing sector added 42,000 jobs, driven by construction (+26,000) and manufacturing (+18,000), despite a 2K loss in natural resources/mining. Employers exhibited hiring hesitancy due to policy uncertainty and slowing consumer spending, according to ADP’s chief economist. Meanwhile, annual pay growth for job-changers slowed slightly to 6.7% from 6.8%, while pay gains for job-stayers remained steady at 4.7%.
Japan's Consumer Confidence Index fell to 35.0 in February 2025, down from 35.2 in January
03/05/2025 12:00 pm EST
AJ Economy Trend - US Down due to dropping of Economic Optimism Index in March 2025
Japan's Consumer Confidence Index fell to 35.0 in February 2025, down from 35.2 in January, marking the lowest level since March 2023 and missing market expectations of 35.7. This decline reflects growing consumer pessimism, likely driven by rising inflation, particularly in food prices, which continues to strain household budgets. Despite these concerns, Japan's economy showed resilience, expanding at an annualized rate of 0.9% in Q3 2024, supported by robust consumer spending. However, inflationary pressures remain a key issue, with 86% of households expecting prices to rise further over the next year.
RealClearMarkets/TIPP Economic Optimism Index in the US dropped to 49.8 in March 2025
03/05/2025 12:00 pm EST
AJ Economy Trend - US Down due to dropping of Economic Optimism Index in March 2025
The RealClearMarkets/TIPP Economic Optimism Index in the US dropped to 49.8 in March 2025 from 52.0 in February, marking its lowest level in five months and falling short of market expectations. Consumer sentiment about the economy's prospects weakened significantly, with the Six-Month Economic Outlook plunging by 9.6% to 46.2, breaking a four-month streak above 50. The Personal Financial Outlook also declined slightly to 55.3, indicating softened confidence in individual financial conditions. Additionally, Confidence in Federal Economic Policies fell to 47.9, remaining in pessimistic territory for the 43rd consecutive month since September 2021. The overall decline in optimism reflects increasing concerns about economic conditions and policy effectiveness in the months ahead.
Japan’s unemployment rate rose to 2.5% in January 2025, up from 2.4% in December 2024
03/03/2025 12:00 pm EST
AJ Economy Trend - Japan Down due to rising unemployment rate in January 2025
Japan’s unemployment rate rose to 2.5% in January 2025, up from 2.4% in December, slightly exceeding market expectations. Despite the increase in unemployment, the labor market showed signs of resilience, with employment rising by 130,000 to a record 68.27 million and the labor force expanding by 130,000 to 70.01 million. The number of unemployed reached a six-month high of 1.74 million, while those detached from the labor force declined by 110,000 to 39.81 million.
Meanwhile, the labor force participation rate climbed to 63.2%, up from 62.6% a year earlier, reflecting increased workforce engagement. Additionally, the jobs-to-applications ratio rose to 1.26, its highest level in nine months, surpassing market expectations of 1.25. The data suggests that while unemployment edged up, strong hiring and increased labor force participation indicate ongoing strength in Japan’s job market.
ISM Manufacturing PMI to 50.3 in February 2025 from 50.9 in January 2025, Employment declined to 47.6 with first contraction
03/03/2025 12:00 pm EST
AJ Economy Trend - US Down due to decline in manufacturing PMI decline
The decline in the ISM Manufacturing PMI to 50.3 in February 2025 from 50.9 in January signals a slowdown in the US manufacturing sector, missing market expectations of 50.5. The sector faced its first operational shock from the new administration’s tariff policy, leading to weaker demand, production stabilization, and continued job cuts. New orders dropped significantly to 48.6, the lowest since March 2022, while employment fell into contraction territory at 47.6. Price pressures surged, with the prices index hitting 62.4, the highest since June 2022, as tariffs led to higher input costs, order backlogs, and supplier delivery stoppages.
Despite these pressures, inventories remained stable, backlogs of orders contracted at a slower pace, and supplier deliveries slowed further (54.5). The data suggests that while manufacturing is still expanding, it is doing so at a much weaker pace, with rising costs and policy uncertainty weighing on the sector. If these trends persist, they could spill over into broader economic activity, particularly in employment and inflation-sensitive industries.
The decline in the ISM Manufacturing Employment Index to 47.6 in February 2025 from 50.3 in January indicates a contraction in manufacturing employment, reflecting potential challenges in the labor market. Historically, the index has averaged 50.13 since 1950, with a peak of 73.7 in February 1951 and a record low of 27.8 in May 1982. This decline suggests that manufacturers are reducing hiring or cutting jobs, likely in response to weaker demand, cost pressures, or economic uncertainty.
Canada’s manufacturing sector faced sharp downturn with PMI fell to 47.8 from 51.6 in January 2025
03/01/2025 11:00 am EST
AJ Economy Trend - Canada’s manufacturing sector experienced sharp downturn in February 2025 with Manufacturing PMI fell to 47.8
Canada’s manufacturing sector faced a sharp downturn in February 2025, as the S&P Global Canada Manufacturing PMI fell to 47.8 from 51.6 in January, missing market expectations of 51.9. This marked the first contraction since August 2024 and the steepest decline since December 2023, driven by a drop in output and new orders. Manufacturers reported that uncertainty surrounding trade policies between Canada and the US led clients to take a cautious approach, resulting in the biggest decline in new export orders since September 2024. The lack of new work caused factories to hesitate in replacing departing employees, leading to the first employment decline since August 2024.
On the cost front, input price inflation surged to a two-year high, primarily due to pressure on the Canadian dollar, squeezing manufacturers’ margins. With weak demand and rising costs, business sentiment turned sharply pessimistic, marking only the second time in survey history that manufacturers reported such a negative outlook. The combination of trade uncertainty, weaker demand, and rising costs raises concerns about the broader economic impact on Canada’s industrial sector and labor market stability in the coming months.
France’s initial jobless claims reached 204,800 in January 2025 from 21,800 in December 2024
03/01/2025 11:00 am EST
AJ Economy Trend - Europe Down as France’s initial jobless claim surged
Initial jobless claims in France surged to 204.8 thousand in January 2025, up sharply from 21.8 thousand in December 2024. This marks a significant increase, potentially indicating deterioration in labor market conditions. Historically, initial jobless claims in France have averaged 0.14 thousand since 1996, with a record high of 807.3 thousand in April 2020 (during the COVID-19 crisis) and a record low of -190.5 thousand in June 2020. The sudden rise in claims may be linked to seasonal job losses, economic slowdown, or structural labor market shifts.
US New Home Sales In The US Declined by 10.5% MoM to 657,000 units in January 2025
03/01/2025 11:00 am EST
AJ Economy Trend - US down with New Home Sales slowing down to 2008 level
New home sales in the U.S. declined by 10.5% month-over-month to 657,000 units in January 2025, following an 8.1% surge in December 2024 (which was revised upward). This marks a significant reversal from the previous month's growth. Historically, monthly new home sales have averaged 0.3% since 1963, with an all-time high of +31.2% in April 1963 and a record low of -33.6% in May 2010. The sharp decline in January could reflect higher mortgage rates, affordability constraints, or seasonal factors impacting buyer demand.
US Economy grew at annualized 2.3% in Q4 2024, slowest pace in 3 quarters
03/01/2025 12:00 am EST
AJ Economy Trend - US down with GDP slowing
The U.S. economy grew at an annualized 2.3% in Q4 2024, the slowest pace in three quarters, down from 3.1% in Q3, but in line with the advance estimate. Personal consumption was the main driver, rising 4.2%, the highest since Q1 2023, with spending on both goods (6.1%) and services (3.3%) increasing. Government spending rose 2.9%, higher than the initial estimate of 2.5%.
Net trade contributed positively, as exports declined less (-0.5% vs. -0.8%), and imports fell more (-1.2% vs. -0.8%) than previously estimated.
Private inventories reduced growth by 0.81 percentage points (pp), slightly less than the advance estimate of 0.93 pp.
However, fixed investment contracted more than expected (-1.4% vs. -0.6%), largely due to equipment investment (-9% vs. -7.8%), while intellectual property investment stagnated (0% vs. 2.6%). Residential investment grew more than initially estimated (5.4% vs. 5.3%). For the full year 2024, the economy expanded 2.8%.
US Treasury yields showed drops in the 2-year and 10-year yield drop
03/01/2025 11:00 pm EST
AJ Economy Trend - US down with yield drop preparing for economic weakness
U.S. Treasury yields showed mixed movements, with short-term yields (1M to 6M) remaining mostly unchanged, while the 1-year yield increased slightly to 4.090% (+0.12%). In contrast, medium- and long-term yields (2Y to 30Y) declined, with the 2-year yield falling to 3.987% (-0.20%) and the 10-year yield dropping to 4.202% (-0.64%), alongside similar declines in 20-year and 30-year yields. The yield curve remains inverted, indicating economic uncertainty, but the decline in long-term yields suggests that investors expect weaker growth and potential Federal Reserve rate cuts in the future. Meanwhile, stable short-term rates indicate that no immediate policy changes are expected. Overall, the market sentiment reflects concerns about a potential slowdown and shifting expectations for monetary easing.
Initial Jobless Claims and Continued Jobless Claims Both Increased in the week of February 27th 2025
02/27/2025 12:00 pm EST
AJ Economy Trend - US down mixed and rising initial and continuous jobless claims
Seasonally Adjusted Data:
Initial Jobless Claims:
242,000: An increase of 22,000 from the previous week's revised level of 220,000.
4-Week Moving Average: 224,000, up by 8,500 from the previous week's revised average.
Insured Unemployment Rate:
1.2% for the week ending February 15, unchanged from the previous week.
Insured Unemployment Level: 1,862,000, a decrease of 5,000 from the revised level of 1,867,000.
4-Week Moving Average: 1,865,000, up by 3,000 from the previous week's revised average.
Continued Weeks Claimed:
All Programs: 2,223,716 for the week ending February 8, an increase of 4,696 from the previous week.
Comparable Week in 2024: 2,122,829 weekly claims filed.
State-Specific Data:
Highest Insured Unemployment Rates (Week Ending February 8):
New Jersey (2.9), Rhode Island (2.9), Minnesota (2.5), Washington (2.5), California (2.4), Illinois (2.4), Massachusetts (2.4), Montana (2.4)
Largest Increases in Initial Claims (Week Ending February 15):
Kentucky (+3,012), Tennessee (+2,766), Washington (+735), Michigan (+452), Minnesota (+83)
Largest Decreases in Initial Claims:
California (-5,530), Pennsylvania (-1,110), Florida (-981), New Jersey (-903), New York (-698)
The increase in initial jobless claims and the rise in the 4-week moving average suggest softening in the labor market, possibly due to seasonal adjustments not fully capturing current economic conditions.
The steady insured unemployment rate (1.2%) indicates continued stability in ongoing joblessness.
The largest increases in initial claims in states like Kentucky and Tennessee may reflect regional economic challenges or industry-specific layoffs.
Conversely, decreases in states like California and New York suggest improvement or stabilization in their respective labor markets.
The unadjusted initial claims fell less than expected, suggesting weaker seasonal hiring or potential economic slowing.
The increase in continued weeks claimed across all programs could indicate longer durations of unemployment for certain workers.