Michigan consumer sentiment dropped for fifth straight monthly decline and a 30% drop since January 2025
05/16/2025 01:00 pm EST
AJ Economy Trend - US down due to continuous down trend of consumer sentiment since January 2025
US consumer sentiment edged down slightly in May 2025, falling 1.4 points to 50.8, marking the fifth straight monthly decline and a nearly 30% drop since January, according to the University of Michigan's preliminary survey. While sentiment among independents ticked up, it fell 7% among Republicans, reflecting growing economic pessimism despite the recent pause on some China tariffs. Nearly 75% of consumers mentioned tariffs as a concern, up from 60% in April, highlighting the ongoing impact of trade policy uncertainty. Personal finance assessments dropped nearly 10% on weakening incomes, and inflation expectations surged, with year-ahead forecasts rising from 6.5% to 7.3% and long-term expectations increasing from 4.4% to 4.6%.
France’s unemployment rate edged up to 7.4% Quarter over Quarter in Q1 2025
05/16/2025 01:00 pm EST
AJ Economy Trend - France down due to edging up unemployment rate
France's unemployment rate edged up to 7.4% in Q1 2025 from 7.3% in the previous quarter, aligning with market expectations, as the number of unemployed persons rose by 64,000 to 2.4 million. Youth unemployment (ages 15-24) remained elevated at 19.2%, up 0.1 percentage point from the previous quarter and 1.1 points higher year-on-year. The jobless rate for those aged 25 to 49 held steady at 6.7%, while the rate for those 50 and over remained at 4.7%, 0.3 points lower than a year earlier. By gender, the unemployment rate for women increased by 0.3 points to 7.4%, matching the nearly unchanged rate for men. The labor force participation rate rose to 75.1%, up from 74.6% in the previous quarter.
Japan’s GDP contracted by 0.2% Quarter over Quarter in Q1 2025
05/16/2025 01:00 pm EST
AJ Economy Trend - Japan down due to decline in GDP Quarter over Quarter
Japan's GDP contracted by 0.2% quarter-on-quarter in Q1 2025, the first decline in a year, missing market expectations of a 0.1% drop and reversing from 0.6% growth in Q4 2024. The downturn was driven by a 0.8 percentage point drag from net trade, as exports fell 0.6% (the first drop since Q1 2024) while imports rebounded 2.9%. Private consumption, which makes up more than half of GDP, was flat, missing forecasts of a 0.1% gain, and government spending also stalled after three consecutive quarters of growth. However, business investment surged 1.4%, the strongest rise since Q2 2024. On an annualized basis, GDP shrank 0.7%, worse than the expected 0.2% decline and a sharp reversal from the 2.4% growth in the previous quarter.
United States’ Industrial Production and Manufacturing Output experienced slight decline
05/16/2025 01:00 pm EST
AJ Economy Trend - United States down due to decline in industrial production and manufacturing output.
US industrial production was flat in April 2025, missing market expectations of a 0.2% increase, as a 0.4% drop in manufacturing and a 0.3% decline in mining offset a strong 3.3% rise in utilities output, driven by higher demand for electricity and natural gas. Capacity utilization slipped to 77.7%, 1.9 percentage points below its long-term average, reflecting ongoing slack in the industrial sector.
US manufacturing output fell 0.4% in April 2025, the largest decline since October 2024 and worse than the expected 0.2% drop. Durable goods production slipped 0.2%, driven by a 1.9% decline in motor vehicles and parts, partially offset by a 1% gain in fabricated metal products. Nondurable goods output fell 0.6%, with broad-based declines, including a 2% drop in publishing and logging. Capacity utilization in manufacturing fell 0.4 percentage points to 76.8%, 1.4 points below its long-term average, reflecting continued slack in the sector.
Initial Jobless Claims remained unchanged at 229,000, remained unchanged from prior week
05/16/2025 01:00 pm EST
AJ Economy Trend - United States down due to continuous upward change on 4-week moving average
In the week ending May 10, 2025, US initial jobless claims remained unchanged at 229,000, matching the revised level from the prior week. The 4-week moving average rose by 3,250 to 230,500, reflecting a slight upward trend. Continuing claims increased by 9,000 to 1,881,000 for the week ending May 3, while the 4-week moving average for continuing claims rose by 750 to 1,873,500. On an unadjusted basis, initial claims fell by 2,630 to 205,183, while the unadjusted insured unemployment level dropped by 55,447 to 1,782,918, maintaining a 1.2% unemployment rate. The highest insured unemployment rates were in New Jersey (2.4%), California (2.2%), and Washington (2.1%), while Michigan saw the largest weekly increase in initial claims (+6,869) and New York the largest decrease (-15,228).
United States PPI fell by 0.5% in April 2025, marking the first decline since October 2023
05/16/2025 01:00 pm EST
AJ Economy Trend - United States down due to falling producer prices for the first time
US producer prices fell by 0.5% in April 2025, marking the first decline since October 2023 and the steepest drop since April 2020, defying expectations of a 0.2% increase. The decline was driven by a record 0.7% fall in service costs, including a 1.6% drop in trade services, as businesses likely absorbed some of the impact from higher tariffs. Excluding trade, transportation, and warehousing, service prices fell 0.3%, while transportation and warehousing costs declined 0.4%. Goods prices were flat, with a 1.0% drop in food and a 0.4% decrease in energy offsetting gains in other components. On a year-over-year basis, PPI inflation eased to 2.4%, the lowest since September 2024 and slightly below the 2.5% forecast.
United Kingdom GDP growth 0.7% in first quarter and 1.3% YoY
05/15/2025 01:00 pm EST
AJ Economy Trend - UK neutral as GDP growth improved slightly both MoM and YoY
The UK economy grew by 0.7% in the first quarter of 2025, up from 0.1% in the previous quarter and 1.3% higher than a year earlier. This expansion was driven by a 0.7% increase in the services sector, led by gains in administrative and support services (+3.3%) and wholesale and retail trade (+1.6%), along with a 1.1% rise in production, supported by manufacturing (+0.8%) and water supply (+4.0%). However, construction remained flat, and mining fell by 0.5%. Expenditure growth was underpinned by a 2.9% rise in gross fixed capital formation, including a 5.9% increase in business investment, while household consumption rose 0.2% and net trade improved as exports climbed 3.5%. Nominal GDP increased by 1.6%, driven mainly by a 1.4% rise in employee compensation, while GDP per head grew by 0.5%, reversing two consecutive quarterly declines.
The Consumer Price Index (CPI) report for April 2025 rose 0.2% MoM and 2.3% YoY, lower than the expectation
05/13/2025 01:00 pm EST
AJ Economy Trend - US neutral as CPI moves towards a more stable state with disinflation records showing up
The Consumer Price Index (CPI) report for April 2025 shows a mixed economic picture. The CPI for All Urban Consumers (CPI-U) increased by 2.3% over the last 12 months and rose 0.2% in April on a seasonally adjusted basis. While food prices slightly decreased overall, with a 0.4% drop in at-home food prices, energy prices saw an increase of 0.7%. Core inflation, which excludes food and energy, rose 0.2% in April and 2.8% over the past year. Notable changes include a 0.3% monthly increase in shelter costs, a 0.5% rise in medical care, and decreases in used car prices and airline fares. Other inflation measures, such as the CPI for Urban Wage Earners and Clerical Workers (CPI-W) and the Chained CPI-U, both increased by 2.1% over 12 months.
United States NFIB Small Business Optimism Index fell to 95.8, lowest since October 2024
05/13/2025 01:00 pm EST
AJ Economy Trend - United States down due to low small business optimism index
In April 2025, the NFIB Small Business Optimism Index fell to 95.8, a 1.6-point decrease from March and the lowest since October 2024, though still surpassing the expected 94.5. The Uncertainty Index also declined by 4 points to 92, retreating from February's record high but remaining well above its historical average of 68, indicating persistent concerns about trade policy unpredictability. Business owners' expectations for improved conditions dropped 6 points to 15%, largely due to increased US government tariffs, while the outlook for higher real sales fell 4 points to a net -1%. In the labor market, 34% of owners reported unfilled job vacancies, a 6-point decrease from March and the lowest level since 2021, suggesting a potential easing in hiring challenges for small businesses.
United Kingdom’s unemployment rate rose to 4.5% from January to March with employment grew with smallest increase
05/12/2025 01:00 pm EST
AJ Economy Trend - United Kingdom down due to increase in unemployment rate to 4.5% from 4.4%
The United Kingdom's labor market showed signs of softening in early 2025, with the unemployment rate rising to 4.5% from January to March, the highest level since August 2021. This increase came after four periods of stability at 4.4%. While employment grew by 112,000 to reach 33.98 million, this was the smallest increase in recent months, primarily due to a decline in full-time positions. Notably, unemployment increased across all duration categories. The data also revealed a rise in individuals holding second jobs, now accounting for 3.9% of the employed population, potentially indicating a need for additional income among workers. Despite these challenges, the economic inactivity rate decreased to 21.4%, suggesting more people are entering the job market. Overall, these figures point to a slight weakening in the UK's labor market conditions.
Japan Leading Economic Indicators Index fell to 107.7 in March 2025 from February 2025
05/09/2025 01:00 pm EST
AJ Economy Trend - Japan down due to fall in leading economic indicator
Japan's leading economic indicators index fell to 107.7 in March 2025 from an upwardly revised 108.2 in February, marking its lowest level since last November. The decline reflects weakening economic momentum as consumer sentiment hit its lowest point since February 2023. Meanwhile, the unemployment rate rose to 2.5% in March from 2.4% in February, with overall employment showing a slight decline, signaling potential challenges for the labor market.
Canada’s unemployment rate rose to 6.9% in April from 6.7% in March, continued with uptrend
05/09/2025 01:00 pm EST
AJ Economy Trend - Canada down due to increase of unemployment rate in April 2025
Canada's unemployment rate rose to 6.9% in April 2025, up from 6.7% in March and exceeding market expectations of 6.8%, marking its highest level in over three years. The number of unemployed individuals increased by 39,300 to 1,548,100, reflecting the growing impact of US tariffs on Canadian industries. Despite this, net employment rose by 7,500, surpassing the expected 2,500 gain, partially offsetting the 32,600 job losses recorded in March. The manufacturing sector was particularly affected, shedding 31,000 jobs due to higher tariffs on aluminum, steel, and automotive products. Meanwhile, the labor force expanded, pushing the participation rate up by 0.1 percentage points to 65.3%.
Initial Jobless Claims fell by 13,000 to 228,000, down from the previous week’s unrevised 241,000.
05/08/2025 03:00 pm EST
AJ Economy Trend - US neutral with stable initial jobless claims number compared to previous week.
For the week ending May 3, 2025, US initial jobless claims fell by 13,000 to 228,000, down from the previous week's unrevised 241,000. The four-week moving average rose slightly by 1,000 to 227,000. The insured unemployment rate decreased by 0.1 percentage point to 1.2% for the week ending April 26, with insured unemployment falling by 29,000 to 1,879,000, following a downward revision in the prior week. Unadjusted initial claims dropped by 16,972 to 206,937, exceeding the expected seasonal decline, while unadjusted insured unemployment fell by 52,707 to 1,845,566. The highest insured unemployment rates were in New Jersey (2.5%), Rhode Island (2.5%), and California (2.3%). The largest increases in claims were seen in New York (+15,418) and Massachusetts (+3,301), while the biggest declines occurred in Connecticut (-2,340) and Rhode Island (-1,850).
Federal Reserve maintained Fed Fund Target range at 4.25% to 4.50%, citing stable labor market conditions
05/07/2025 03:00 pm EST
AJ Economy Trend - US neutral with Fed Fund Rate remaining at 4.25% to 4.50% due to possible inflation pressure under trade tariff
The Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) maintained the target range for the federal funds rate at 4.25% to 4.50%, citing stable labor market conditions, solid economic activity, and somewhat elevated inflation. The Committee remains focused on achieving maximum employment and returning inflation to its 2% target but noted increased uncertainty around the economic outlook, with rising risks of both higher unemployment and inflation. The Fed will continue reducing its holdings of Treasury securities, agency debt, and mortgage-backed securities, while closely monitoring labor market trends, inflation pressures, and global financial developments to assess the need for future rate adjustments. All 12 voting members, including Chair Jerome Powell and Vice Chair John Williams, supported the decision, with Neel Kashkari participating as an alternate member.
United Kingdom Composite PMI dropped to 48.5 in April 2025
05/06/2025 01:00 pm EST
AJ Economy Trend - United Kingdom down due to both manufacturing and service remained in contraction territory
The S&P Global UK Composite PMI dropped to 48.5 in April 2025 from 51.5 in March, revised slightly higher from the preliminary 48.2 but still below initial forecasts of 50.4. This marked the first contraction in overall UK economic activity since October 2023, driven by declines in both manufacturing (45.4 vs 44.9) and services (49.0 vs 52.5), with the latter contracting for the first time in 17 months. New business fell for the fourth consecutive month as client confidence weakened amid financial market turbulence and US tariffs. Employment also declined as firms delayed hiring amid rising wage and National Insurance costs. Business confidence hit its lowest level since 2022, reflecting heightened economic uncertainty.
Caixin China General Services PMI fell to 50.7 in April 2025 from 51.9 in March 2025, below market expectations
05/06/2025 01:00 pm EST
AJ Economy Trend - China down due to further contraction of service activities in April 2025
The Caixin China General Services PMI fell to 50.7 in April 2025 from 51.9 in March, below market expectations of 51.7, marking the slowest growth in the sector since September 2024. New orders expanded at their weakest pace in 28 months as US tariff disruptions weighed on trade, despite a slight uptick in export demand from tourism. Employment declined for the second straight month amid rising costs, with input price inflation reaching a three-month high due to higher labor and material expenses. Output prices continued to fall for the third consecutive month as firms cut prices to stay competitive. Business sentiment dropped to its second-lowest level since records began in 2005, reflecting mounting concerns over trade policy uncertainties.
ISM Services PMI rose to 51.6 in April 2025 from 50.8 in March but still really close to contraction territory
05/06/2025 01:00 pm EST
AJ Economy Trend - US neutral with US Services PMI remained close to contraction territory
The ISM Services PMI rose to 51.6 in April 2025 from 50.8 in March, surpassing forecasts of 50.6 and signaling a stronger-than-expected rebound in the services sector. New orders (52.3 vs 50.4) and inventories (53.4 vs 50.3) expanded at a faster pace, while business activity remained in growth territory despite slowing (53.7 vs 55.9). Employment contracted for the third consecutive month, though at a reduced pace (49.0 vs 46.2), and supplier deliveries slowed (51.3 vs 50.6). Price pressures surged to a two-year high (65.1 vs 60.9), driven by tariff impacts, with respondents highlighting actual price increases over future concerns. Despite ongoing challenges from federal budget cuts, overall sector sentiment improved.
S&P US Composite PMI revised down to 50.6 from 51.2, marking the weakest expansion in US private sector
05/06/2025 01:00 pm EST
AJ Economy Trend - US down due to further contraction of private sector in United States
The S&P Global U.S. Composite PMI for April 2025 was revised down to 50.6 from a preliminary 51.2, marking the weakest expansion in the U.S. private sector since September 2023. Growth slowed significantly from March’s 53.5 reading as policy uncertainty, particularly around trade, constrained demand. New business rose modestly, but business confidence fell to its lowest in two and a half years. Employment remained steady, while input cost pressures eased slightly but remained high due to tariff impacts, prompting firms to raise selling prices at the fastest pace since last September.
S&P Canada Composite PMI dropped to 41.7 from 42, indicating continuous contraction
05/06/2025 01:00 pm EST
AJ Economy Trend - Canada down due to private sector further contracted in April 2024
Canada’s private sector activity contracted further in April 2024, with the S&P Global Composite PMI dropping to 41.7 from 42, the steepest decline since June 2020 and the fifth straight month in contraction. Both manufacturing and services saw similar declines in output, while new orders fell sharply. Employment was cut for a fourth month amid weak demand and minimal capacity pressure. Although business sentiment slightly improved, it stayed historically low. Input cost inflation eased to a three-month low but remained high, while output prices declined for the first time in over four years due to subdued demand.
Weaker US Dollar suggested that a potential reduction in trade deficits
05/03/2025 01:00 pm EST
AJ Economy Trend - US neutral with US rebalancing import and export through weakening US dollars
A weaker U.S. dollar, as suggested by the potential breakdown in the DXY chart, would make American exports cheaper and more competitive globally, supporting efforts to bring manufacturing jobs back to the U.S. Historically, periods of dollar weakness—such as 2002 to 2011—coincided with attempts to boost domestic production and reduce trade deficits. A lower dollar discourages imports by raising their cost while encouraging foreign demand for U.S. goods, thereby improving the trade balance. This environment creates favorable conditions for reshoring industrial activity, aligning with broader economic and policy goals aimed at revitalizing U.S. manufacturing.
Crude Oil Futures predicting a further decline in economy and deflation
05/03/2025 01:00 pm EST
AJ Economy Trend - Global down with significant and continuous decreasing oil future price
Crude oil futures have dropped sharply to $58.38, breaking below key support levels and continuing a clear downtrend. All major moving averages are sloping downward, indicating sustained bearish momentum, while the RSI approaches oversold territory, suggesting possible—but not confirmed—short-term stabilization. This decline in oil prices reinforces market expectations of disinflation, as it points to weaker global demand or oversupply. If prices remain low, it could ease inflation pressures and increase the likelihood of more accommodative central bank policies ahead.
Berkshire Hathaway reported Q1 loss with cash pile surged to $347.7 billion
05/02/2025 01:00 pm EST
AJ Economy Trend - US down with Berkshire Hathaway’s investment strategy remains conservative due to uncertain economic climate
Berkshire Hathaway reported a 14% drop in Q1 2025 operating earnings to $9.64 billion, its steepest quarterly decline since 2020, largely due to a 49% plunge in insurance underwriting income, which was hit by wildfire-related losses and foreign exchange impacts. Net income fell sharply by 64% to $4.6 billion, driven by a $7.4 billion unrealized loss on equity investments. Despite this, the company’s insurance investment income rose 11%, and its key subsidiaries—BNSF Railway and Berkshire Hathaway Energy—posted solid gains of 6.2% and 53%, respectively. Berkshire remained a net seller of stocks for the tenth straight quarter, but its cash pile surged to a record $347.7 billion, reflecting Warren Buffett’s caution amid limited attractive investment opportunities.
Euro Area unemployment rate held steady at 6.2% in March 2025, slightly above expectations of 6.1%
05/02/2025 01:00 pm EST
AJ Economy Trend - Euro down due to increasing trend of unemployed individuals
The Euro Area unemployment rate held steady at a record low of 6.2% in March 2025 for the sixth month in a row, slightly above expectations of 6.1%. Despite the steady rate, the number of unemployed people rose by 83,000 to 10.818 million. The youth unemployment rate (under 25) improved slightly, dipping to 14.2% from 14.3%. Among major economies, Germany (3.5%) and the Netherlands (3.9%) posted the lowest unemployment, while Spain (10.9%), France (7.3%), and Italy (6%) remained elevated. The jobless rate is down from 6.5% a year ago, signaling continued labor market resilience.
US economy added Nonfarm payroll jobs 177,000 and unemployment rate held steady at 4.2%, prior months job gains revised lower
05/02/2025 01:00 pm EST
AJ Economy Trend - US down due to heavy downward revision in previous months and unemployment rate not going downwards
The U.S. economy added 177,000 nonfarm payroll jobs in April, aligning closely with the 12-month average of 152,000. The unemployment rate held steady at 4.2%, with 7.2 million people unemployed, largely unchanged. Job growth was concentrated in health care (+51K), transportation and warehousing (+29K), financial activities (+14K), and social assistance (+8K). Federal government employment declined by 9,000, contributing to a total loss of 26,000 since January.
Wages rose moderately: average hourly earnings increased by 0.2% (6 cents) to $36.06, with a 3.8% annual gain. The average workweek remained flat at 34.3 hours. Long-term unemployment rose to 1.7 million, now accounting for 23.5% of the unemployed. Labor force participation (62.6%) and the employment-population ratio (60.0%) were both unchanged. Revisions to prior months’ data lowered February and March job gains by a combined 58,000 jobs.
S&P Global UK Manufacturing PMI for April 2025 was revised up to 45.4 from the preliminary 44.0
05/01/2025 01:00 pm EST
AJ Economy Trend - UK down due to continued contraction of UK Manufacturing activity
The S&P Global UK Manufacturing PMI for April 2025 was revised up to 45.4 from the preliminary 44.0, modestly above March’s 44.9 but still firmly indicating contraction. The sector remained under significant pressure as output fell due to weakening demand at home and abroad amid rising economic and trade uncertainty. Employment declined for the sixth straight month, with job losses at their second-highest rate in nearly five years. Backlogs of work were cleared at the fastest pace in 17 months. Inflationary pressures worsened, with input costs rising at the quickest rate since December 2022 and output prices accelerating to a 26-month high. Business sentiment weakened sharply, as confidence hit a 29-month low, with only 47% of firms expecting output growth in the year ahead.
Initial Jobless Claims in the US increased sharply by 18,000 to 241,000 for the week ending April 26, 2025
05/01/2025 01:00 pm EST
AJ Economy Trend - US down due to sudden spike of initial jobless claims that exceed expectation
Initial jobless claims in the U.S. increased sharply by 18,000 to 241,000 for the week ending April 26, 2025, the highest level since February and well above the expected 224,000. Unadjusted claims also rose by 12,901 to 223,614, with the largest increases seen in New York (+15,525) and Massachusetts (+3,251). Continuing claims, representing those still receiving benefits, jumped by 83,000 to 1.916 million for the week ending April 19—marking the highest level since November 2021 and exceeding forecasts of 1.86 million. Meanwhile, federal employee claims fell slightly by 187 to 470, though many DOGE-related terminations reportedly came with severance packages that delay eligibility for unemployment benefits.
PCE inflation stands at 2.3% and core PCE at 2.6% with disposable personal income increased by $102 billion
04/30/2025 01:00 pm EST
AJ Economy Trend - US neutral with inflation rate remaining steady and modest growth of personal income and disposable income
In March 2025, U.S. personal income rose by $116.8 billion (0.5%), driven primarily by higher compensation, especially in service industries, and gains in proprietors’ income, notably farm-related due to emergency aid payments. Disposable personal income (DPI) increased by $102.0 billion (0.5%), while personal consumption expenditures (PCE) grew $134.5 billion (0.7%), split between goods ($54.5B) and services ($79.9B).
Personal outlays rose $136.6 billion, and personal saving reached $872.3 billion, putting the personal saving rate at 3.9%.
Price pressures remained subdued:
The PCE price index was flat month-over-month (0.0%)
The core PCE (excluding food and energy) also showed no change
Year-over-year, PCE inflation stood at 2.3%, and core PCE at 2.6%
US Real GDP declined at an annual rate of 0.3% compared to 2.4% growth recorded in Q4 2024 due to cut in government spending
04/30/2025 01:00 pm EST
AJ Economy Trend - US down due to real GDP decline with cut on government spending
In Q1 2025, U.S. real GDP declined at an annual rate of 0.3%, reversing the 2.4% growth recorded in Q4 2024. The downturn was primarily driven by a surge in imports (which subtract from GDP) and a drop in federal government spending, particularly defense. These were only partially offset by gains in consumer spending, investment, and exports. Despite the headline contraction, real final sales to private domestic purchasers (a key measure of private sector demand) rose 3.0%, up slightly from 2.9% in Q4.
Inflation pressures intensified:
The gross domestic purchases price index rose 3.4% (vs. 2.2% in Q4)
The PCE price index climbed 3.6% (vs. 2.4%)
Core PCE, excluding food and energy, increased 3.5% (vs. 2.6%)
On the trade side, the rise in imports was driven by increased purchases of consumer goods (notably pharmaceuticals) and capital goods (like computers), while silver bar imports—treated as a store of value—were excluded from investment calculations. Consumer spending remained resilient, with gains in healthcare, housing, and utilities, though durable goods spending declined.
Germany’s unemployment rate held at 6.3% in April 2025
04/30/2025 01:00 pm EST
AJ Economy Trend - Germany down due to unemployment rate remained high and in record high since 2020
Germany’s seasonally adjusted unemployment rate held at 6.3% in April 2025, its highest since 2020 and matching expectations. The number of unemployed rose by 4,000 to 2.922 million, a smaller increase than the forecasted 15,000 to 20,000, suggesting some stabilization in the labor market. However, job vacancies declined by 55,000 year-over-year to 646,000, indicating weakening labor demand. Despite 0.2% GDP growth in Q1 2025, Germany's economy faces mounting pressure from industrial sluggishness and trade tensions, with the government projecting flat economic growth for the year and a persistently elevated jobless rate.
France’s annual inflation rate remained steady at 0.8% for the third consecutive month
04/30/2025 01:00 pm EST
AJ Economy Trend - France neutral with inflation rate remaining steady with low move of inflation rate
In April 2025, France’s annual inflation rate remained steady at 0.8% for the third consecutive month—the lowest since February 2021—matching expectations. A sharper drop in energy prices (-7.9%) was offset by rising food inflation (1.2%), particularly in fresh products (4.0%). Inflation for services (2.3%) and tobacco (4.1%) remained stable, while manufactured goods continued to deflate (-0.2%). On a monthly basis, consumer prices rose 0.5%, the highest since August 2024, driven by increases in transport services and food. The EU-harmonized inflation rate dipped to 0.8% year-on-year but climbed 0.6% month-on-month.
France GDP grew 0.1% quarterly growth in Q1 2025, recovering from contraction in Q4 2024
04/30/2025 01:00 pm EST
AJ Economy Trend - France neutral with France GDP moved slightly out of contraction from last quarter
France’s economy eked out 0.1% quarterly growth in Q1 2025, recovering from a slight contraction in Q4 2024 but missing forecasts of 0.2%. Inventory accumulation was the main driver (+0.5 percentage points), as final domestic demand made no contribution and net trade weighed on GDP. Household spending stagnated due to weaker goods purchases, though service consumption helped offset the dip. Government spending slowed, and fixed investment declined for a second quarter, particularly in construction and manufactured goods. Exports dropped sharply despite a temporary pause in U.S. tariffs, while imports continued to rise. On an annual basis, GDP grew 0.8%, slightly above expectations and matching the revised Q4 rate.